Houses sit abandoned in eastern Bhutan. Fields once farmed by generations now lie fallow. A new study finds that climate change is accelerating migration out of rural Bhutan — quietly dismantling communities that have existed for centuries.
The research, led by Kinley Dorji, a PhD student at the Royal University of Bhutan and affiliated researcher at the University of Exeter, finds that 138 out of 205 regions across the country have experienced net population loss.
The findings are published in the annual journal of Bhutan’s Royal Thimphu College.
Bhutan holds a rare distinction. It is the world’s first carbon-negative country, absorbing more greenhouse gases than it emits through its vast forests and hydropower exports. Yet it suffers disproportionately from a crisis it did not cause.
“Bhutan faces two profound existential threats — climate change and demographic change due to people leaving rural areas, or leaving the country entirely,” Dorji said.
Temperatures have risen consistently since 1960, with sharper warming after 1991. Glaciers are retreating. Rainfall has become erratic. Floods and landslides are increasing in frequency. The World Bank estimates that climate-related events cost Bhutan an average of USD 169.3 million per year — roughly 6.9 percent of GDP.
Climate as a ‘Background Stressor’
The study does not claim climate change directly causes people to leave. The picture is more complicated than that.
Migration in Bhutan is primarily driven by economic ambition, better education, and the pull of urban opportunity. But climate change acts as what the researchers call a “background stressor” — steadily eroding the conditions that make rural life viable.
“As a mountainous country, climate hazards in Bhutan can trigger natural disasters such as extreme flooding and landslides,” Dorji said. “At the same time, we see climate-driven changes such as erratic rainfall and more crop-pest infestations, which make agriculture and other rural livelihoods harder — accelerating the emptying of rural areas.”
When a farmer’s harvest becomes unpredictable year after year, staying begins to feel like a gamble. Moving begins to feel like survival.
The East Is Being Left Behind
The migration runs in one direction: from rural east to urban west. Cities like Thimphu and Phuentsholing are growing. Districts like Zhemgang, Lhuentse, and Trashigang are shrinking.
The human consequences are visible on the ground. The rural east now has an ageing population, a shrinking agricultural labour force, and a weakening of the inter-generational ties that hold communities together.
The Bhutanese language even has words for what is happening. Gungtong means abandoned house. Satong means abandoned land. Both are becoming more common in the east.
Migration does not stop at Bhutan’s borders. International migration has surged in recent years, with Australia emerging as a primary destination. Around 67,000 Bhutanese now live there — a significant figure for a country of just over 800,000 people.
“The number of people leaving the country — especially the brain drain of young and skilled workers — has become a concern for government,” Dorji said.
Healthcare, education, and civil administration are already feeling the gaps left by departing professionals. Among Bhutanese migrants concentrated in Perth, Australia, 53 percent hold college degrees.
Remittances provide some cushion. Money sent home supports rural households and has become an important source of income for families who remain. But it does not replace the people who left.
What Climate Change Is Doing to Farming
Agriculture underpins the lives of roughly 57 percent of Bhutan’s population. Climate change is making farming increasingly precarious.
Farmers face crop losses from erratic rainfall, pest outbreaks, hailstorms, flash floods, and drought. The 1996 blast disease wiped out 80 to 90 percent of rice crops in high-altitude areas. A 2007 maize blight damaged more than half of the harvest. Annual crop losses from flood and rainfall-related hazards averaged USD 568,035 between 2016 and 2024.
Glacial retreat compounds the threat. Bhutan has 567 glacial lakes, 17 of which are classified as potentially dangerous. As glaciers shrink, the risk of sudden glacial lake outburst floods — which can destroy farmland, infrastructure, and lives within hours — is rising.
The Path Forward
Professor Jelle Wouters, of Royal Thimphu College and editor of the journal publishing the findings, says the research must translate into action.
“We need to use this research to create pathways for diversifying the economy of rural areas,” Wouters said. “Such initiatives would ensure that rural outmigration remains a choice for better opportunities, rather than a compulsion for survival.”
The government is investing in clean energy, protecting biodiversity, and exploring carbon trading to generate revenue for conservation. Communities are working on securing water sources and using nature-based solutions to buffer against climate extremes.
Professor Neil Adger, from the University of Exeter, offers a starker framing.
“The phenomenon of abandoned households in rural villages is one of the starkest images of climate change,” he said.
In Bhutan, those abandoned houses are not metaphors. They are a growing count — and with every monsoon that arrives too late or too violently, the count rises.
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