Himalayan glaciers are losing mass 65 per cent faster than they did in the previous decade, increasing risks to water supplies and mountain communities, according to a new report.
The report, Prosperous and Resilient Himalayas, says retreating glaciers are leaving behind unstable lakes, while melting permafrost and unstable mountain slopes are increasing the risk of cascading disasters.
Produced by global consultancy Systemiq with the Integrated Mountain Initiative, the report includes technical contributions from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development and the G B Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment. The September 2026 document is an abridged version, with the full report expected in October.
It says black carbon from South Asia is linked to about one-third of Himalayan glacier mass loss. The soot comes from several sources, including brick kilns in the plains.
Industry, primarily brick kilns, contributes 32 per cent to 42 per cent of in-domain human-caused black-carbon deposition affecting the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Karakoram region, according to modelling cited in the report. When black carbon settles on snow and ice, it can darken the surface and increase the absorption of solar heat.
The report says the changes in the mountains are also affecting India’s economy.
Glacial lakes grow
As glaciers retreat, new glacial lakes can form in the high mountains. These lakes are often held back by natural dams made of ice, loose rock and debris. If these barriers fail, water and debris can surge into valleys below.
A similar chain of events occurred on Aug. 26, 2026, along the Nepal-Tibet border, where a glacier and rock collapse triggered a destructive flood. The event highlighted the risks posed by cascading hazards in the region.
India has 189 high-risk glacial lakes, of which 56 are classified as very high risk, according to a 2025 scientific assessment by the National Disaster Management Authority cited in the report.
The threat is not limited to glacial lakes. The report also points to melting permafrost and unstable high mountain slopes as growing sources of landslides and other hazards.
Dr. Pema Gyamtsho, director general of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, wrote in the report that glaciers are retreating while permafrost and high-mountain slopes are becoming increasingly unstable.
“Glaciers are retreating, permafrost and high-mountain slopes are becoming increasingly unstable, and communities and infrastructure downstream face growing risks from complex and cascading hazards,” Gyamtsho said.
Monitoring gap and risk to river flows
The report flags a major monitoring gap in the Himalayas. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region is estimated to have around 40,000 glaciers, while only around 21 are currently monitored in detail across the region, including 16 to 17 in India, according to the report.
That leaves a large part of the rapidly changing region without sustained glacier monitoring. Without stronger monitoring, risk mapping and early-warning systems, the report says it will be difficult to anticipate hazards and act before they cascade.
The impact of glacier loss will not be limited to the mountains. Glacier-fed water is central to water security across South Asia.
Most Himalayan river basins are expected to reach “peak water” by the middle of this century. This is the point when glacier meltwater reaches its maximum before declining as the ice reserve shrinks.
The report says that on current emissions trajectories, the Hindu Kush Himalaya could lose up to 80 per cent of its present glacier volume by 2100. This could affect agriculture, drinking water, hydropower, industry and cities downstream.
The loss of snow and ice could therefore make Himalayan water supplies less reliable over time.
Economic backbone
The Himalayas cover about 18 per cent of India’s land area, while the region accounts for about 35 per cent of disasters, according to the report.
They are also an important part of India’s economy. The report estimates that economic activity dependent on the Himalayan system is worth ₹64.8 lakh crore, equal to 21.5 per cent of India’s FY24 GDP.
The estimate includes economic activity in Himalayan states, downstream agriculture, manufacturing, hydropower and services that rely on Himalayan-fed rivers and groundwater recharge, as well as some supply-chain and wage-spending effects.
The report says Himalayan states capture only about 5 per cent of the economic value that the wider system supports, while much of the value accrues downstream.
Lord Nicholas Stern, professor of economics and chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, described the Himalayas as the “Third Pole.”
“The Himalayas are the Third Pole, and unlike the Arctic or Antarctic, this pole has hundreds of millions of people living beneath it,” Stern wrote.
The report links the protection of the mountains to water, food and economic security across South Asia.
In 2025, the Indian Himalayan Region recorded more than 400 million tourist visits, about eight times the region’s resident population, according to the report.
Black carbon action
The report identifies black carbon as an area where South Asian countries can act more directly.
It says reducing emissions from brick kilns and other sources could reduce the amount of soot reaching Himalayan glaciers. The report links this action to both local air pollution and glacier protection.
Global warming remains the main driver of glacier retreat, while black carbon acts as a local factor that can accelerate melting.
New development model
The report calls for a development model that protects glaciers, forests, springs and other mountain ecosystems while strengthening disaster resilience.
It identifies 10 priority transitions, including reducing black carbon, monitoring glaciers and permafrost, strengthening early-warning systems, reviving drying Himalayan springs, improving forest management and managing tourism according to local capacity.
The report estimates that its proposed programmes could generate an average adjusted return of about ₹8 in benefits for every rupee invested.
The figure is based on illustrative programmes and includes economic, social and ecological benefits and avoided losses. The report says the estimates are screening-level figures that require further local design, costing and validation.
Cross-border challenge
The Himalayan crisis does not stop at national borders. The risks extend beyond individual countries as glaciers retreat and mountain slopes become less stable.
Gyamtsho said those risks “do not respect national borders, and no single country can address them alone.”
That makes cross-border monitoring, shared risk information, early-warning systems and joint investment in resilience important, according to the report.
The report says the Himalayas function as one connected system, with changes in the mountains affecting communities, infrastructure, water supplies and economies far downstream.
Protecting that system will require action on glacier monitoring, disaster preparedness, black-carbon emissions, water security and the way development takes place across the mountain region.
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