Madhya Pradesh could see a sharp rise in dangerous daytime, nighttime, and compound heatwaves over the rest of this century, according to a new study led by the Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology (MANIT) Bhopal, in collaboration with IISER Bhopal and Indiana University Indianapolis in the United States.
The study analysed high-resolution temperature records from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) between 1981 and 2024. Then, combined them with projections from 13 global climate models to forecast heatwave patterns across all 55 districts of the state through 2100.
Nights Warming Faster Than Days
The researchers found that while daytime heatwaves have intensified sharply since the 1990s, nighttime heatwaves are now rising even faster, driven by warming minimum temperatures and reduced overnight cooling. When hot days are followed by hot nights, the result is what scientists call a compound heatwave, which carries greater health and economic risks than either type alone.
“Heatwaves are no longer just about extremely hot afternoons,” Dr. Vikas Poonia, assistant professor in MANIT Bhopal’s civil engineering department and the study’s corresponding author, told Ground Report.
“Warm nights are becoming equally important because they prevent people, agriculture, and ecosystems from recovering after prolonged daytime heat. This continuous exposure significantly increases heat stress and associated risks,” he added.
Districts including Morena, Gwalior, Indore, Dhar, and Khargone recorded more than 11 daytime heatwave events between 2011 and 2024, up from fewer than three during the 1980s, the study found.
Under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario, the study projects compound heatwave frequency will rise by 8 to 10 events per district between 2025 and 2062, and by 9 to 12 events between 2063 and 2100.
Heatwave duration could extend by three to four additional days in the worst-affected districts.
Compound heatwaves have grown most in western and northern districts over the same period.
A 2025 report by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) ranked Madhya Pradesh ninth among Indian states for overall heat risk, with 35 percent of its districts in the high-risk category and another 35 percent in the very-high-risk category.
That report also noted that Bhopal recorded seven additional very warm nights per summer over the past decade compared with the 1982–2011 baseline, and that hot-spell durations lengthened by more than three days in 38 percent of districts across states including Madhya Pradesh.
Machine Learning Maps Hotspots
To identify risk patterns across the state, the researchers used machine learning to group districts into four heat vulnerability zones based on shared temperature characteristics. The method flagged Bhind, Ratlam, Mandla, Sidhi, Singrauli, Rewa, and Satna as emerging hotspots likely to face rising heat risk in the coming decades.
“The future of heat in Madhya Pradesh is not defined only by hotter days, but by hotter days followed by warmer nights,” said Joitree Mukherjee, the study’s first author from MANIT Bhopal.
Compound heatwaves, they said, are becoming an increasingly important hazard for public health, agriculture, and water resources in the state.
A Gap in Heat Action Plans
India’s official heatwave alerts and most state Heat Action Plans still rely mainly on daytime maximum temperature.
The CEEW report found that only two of 15 states reviewed had any heat vulnerability mapping.
Poonia said the findings should push authorities to update their planning tools.
“Machine learning enables us to identify emerging heatwave hotspots with much greater precision,” he said. “This information can support evidence-based planning, helping governments strengthen Heat Action Plans and protect vulnerable communities before extreme heat becomes more frequent.”
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