The United Nations weather agency issued its starkest climate warning of the year on Tuesday, declaring that El Niño is arriving with near-certainty and that India, which depends on four months of monsoon rain to feed a billion people, faces its weakest rainfall season in three years.
The World Meteorological Organization put the probability of El Niño forming between June and August at 80%, rising to 90% or higher through November. Most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate and possibly strong.
For India, the WMO warning lands on ground already scorched by bad news. The India Meteorological Department has twice downgraded its 2026 monsoon forecast, cutting it to 90% of the Long Period Average — firmly below normal, and worse than its April estimate of 92%. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said El Niño is confirmed to hit during the monsoon season, bringing rainfall to the lowest the country has seen in three years. Conditions are expected to be weak in June and strengthen to moderate or strong by September.
What the WMO Is Seeing
The trigger is deep in the Pacific Ocean. Subsurface water temperatures in the tropical Pacific are running more than 6°C above average — a vast reservoir of stored heat rising to the surface and driving sea-surface warming toward El Niño thresholds.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo drew a direct line to the recent past. “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event — which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” she said. “The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record, and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024.”
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update, issued alongside the warning, projects above-normal temperatures in nearly every part of the globe for June through August. Scientists warn that the combination of a warming planet and a moderate-to-strong El Niño could make the coming years among the hottest ever recorded.
What It Means for Indian Monsoon
El Niño suppresses the monsoon by warming the equatorial Pacific, which disrupts the pressure and wind systems that pull moisture from the Indian Ocean toward the subcontinent. The effect is not guaranteed — but historically, around 60% of El Niño years produce deficient rainfall in India.
The probability of a deficient season — rainfall falling below 90% of the Long Period Average — now stands at 35%, more than double the historical average of 16%.
IMD said the Indian Ocean Dipole, which can offset El Niño’s damage when in a positive phase, is expected to remain neutral during the monsoon period — removing one of India’s most reliable weather buffers.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, a belt of cloud and wind that rotates the equator and delivers burst rainfall, may still provide periodic relief. But it cannot replace sustained seasonal rain.
IMD expects below-normal monthly rainfall over most of the country in June, with only parts of Northwest India, the Northeast, and isolated pockets of the South Peninsula likely to receive normal or above-normal precipitation. The monsoon is expected to reach Kerala around June 4 — three days behind schedule.
Farmers and Food at Risk
Around 50% of India’s cultivated land is rain-fed. The kharif season — rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane — accounts for roughly 80% of total annual rainfall use and nearly half the country’s food supply.
IMD now forecasts just 800mm of rain this season, against a long-period average of 870mm — a shortfall that could hit roughly 60% of farmers who depend on the monsoon for kharif planting.
States most at risk include Maharashtra’s Vidarbha region, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and western Uttar Pradesh — together forming the spine of India’s rain-fed agricultural belt.
Agricultural economist Ashok Gulati, former chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, offered blunt advice. “Farmers should consider cultivating pulses, oilseeds and millets, which can withstand drought conditions better than water-intensive crops such as paddy,” he said.
Government Response
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan convened a national kharif conference last week and told states to activate district-level contingency plans. The government has stockpiled 174,000 quintals of seeds above normal requirements, bringing total kharif seed availability to 1.93 million tonnes.
“Rather than worrying, preparation is required. Contingency plans will be made for affected districts and crop changes will be considered wherever necessary,” Chouhan said.
Reservoir storage across the country sits at 127% of normal for this time of year — a buffer that may matter when the rains fall short. But stored water cannot replace four months of rain on 50 million unirrigated farms.
The WMO says the window for preparation is now. Once El Niño peaks between November and February, its damage to this season’s crop will already be done.
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