The Kashmir Valley recorded its second-highest October temperature on record on Sunday, with Srinagar touching 31.2°C. Qazigund and Kokernag broke their previous October temperature records, while Gulmarg recorded its second-highest October temperature.
The record-breaking heat comes as Kashmir experiences a longer-term rise in temperatures and increasingly unusual seasonal patterns.
The data from the India Meteorological Department’s Srinagar centre showed Srinagar at 31.2°C on October 4. The temperature was 5.7°C above normal, the second-highest October temperature recorded at the station. The October record remains 33.9°C, recorded on October 2, 1931.
The previous second-highest October temperature was 31.1°C, recorded on October 2, 2008. Sunday’s temperature therefore came within 2.7°C of Srinagar’s October record, at a time when temperatures normally start falling across the Valley.
Qazigund, a town in south Kashmir’s Anantnag district, recorded 31.4°C on Sunday. The temperature broke its previous October record of 31.2°C, set on October 1, 1985. It was 7.3°C above normal.
Similarly, Kokernag, known for its springs and mountain surroundings, recorded 29.4°C. This surpassed its previous October record of 29.2°C, recorded on October 4, 2008. The temperature was 5.8°C above normal.
Gulmarg, the well-known hill resort in north Kashmir’s Baramulla district, also recorded 23.2°C. The temperature was 6.7°C above normal and was the second-highest October temperature recorded there. Gulmarg’s October record stands at 23.4°C, recorded on October 1, 2009.
The IMD data also showed Pahalgam at 25.8°C, Kupwara at 30.7°C and Bhaderwah at 28.2°C on October 4. The readings show that the unusual warmth was spread across several parts of the region.
Dry spell behind the heat
The weather centre had forecasted mostly dry conditions through October 5, followed by a change in weather from October 6. IMD Srinagar Director Mukhtar Ahmad, speaking to Ground Report, said, “When there is no rain or snow for long periods, temperatures can shoot up.”
He also pointed to a wider change in Kashmir’s precipitation pattern, saying more winter precipitation is now falling as rain rather than snow.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif described the readings recorded across several stations as exceptional for October.
“The temperatures are exceptionally high for this time of the year, with Qazigund and Kokernag breaking their respective October records. Such values are unusual and indicate an intense spell of heat across Kashmir,” Arif said.
Transition Month
October is a key transition month in Kashmir. Temperatures normally fall sharply from September, with Srinagar’s 1991–2020 climate normals showing an average October maximum of 23°C and minimum of 6.2°C.
This cooling period matters for Kashmir’s agriculture and ecosystems. Apple harvesting takes place during this period, while saffron enters an important flowering phase.
The latest heat records come after a 2026 study published in Scientific Reports examined temperature changes across Jammu and Kashmir from 1980 to 2024. The study found clear but uneven warming across Jammu and Kashmir.
Pahalgam and Gulmarg have also warmed by nearly 1°C over the past two decades. The study found that warming is strongest in some mid- and high-elevation areas, while nighttime temperatures are rising faster than daytime temperatures at several stations.
This matters for a region where snow, glaciers and seasonal temperature changes support agriculture and water supplies.
In an earlier Ground Report report on the same study, we found that Kashmir’s mountain regions are warming, with nighttime temperatures rising faster at several stations. Prof Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath of IIT Kharagpur, one of the study’s authors, told Ground Report that even half a degree of warming can affect climate-sensitive crops such as saffron and apples.
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