Madhya Pradesh’s monsoon rainfall has dipped below normal for the first time this season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Bhopal said Tuesday. The state has received 3% less rain than usual so far.
The shortfall is sharper in some regions. Eastern Madhya Pradesh, covering Jabalpur, Shahdol, Sagar and Rewa divisions, has recorded 17% less rain than average. Western Madhya Pradesh, including Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Narmadapuram and the Gwalior-Chambal region, is down 10%.
The state has not seen heavy or very heavy rainfall in five days. Clouds have covered Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain and most other areas, but they have produced little rain. More than half of Madhya Pradesh’s districts now have below-normal rainfall.
The state has recorded 241.8 mm of rain so far this season, against a normal of 250.1 mm, a 3% deficit. That figure still represents 25% of the season’s total expected rainfall.
Light rain forecast for eastern districts
The IMD expects light rain with thunder and lightning on Tuesday in Satna, Rewa, Mauganj, Sidhi, Singrauli, Maihar, Umaria, Shahdol, Anuppur, Dindori, Mandla, Balaghat, Seoni, Chhindwara and Pandhurna.
Western and central districts, including Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Sehore, Raisen and Vidisha, will see clear, sunny skies.
Why the rain has stalled
Weather expert Shailendra Kumar Nayak said the weather systems driving the monsoon have weakened or moved away from the state. “This is why most areas are seeing only cloud cover and light drizzle instead of proper rain,” Nayak said.
A new cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the northern Bay of Bengal. If it develops into a low-pressure area, heavy rain could return to the state, the IMD said. Three new weather systems are also forming over the Pacific Ocean. If even one reaches the Bay of Bengal, the monsoon could become active again.
June saw below-normal rainfall, and July had started strong before the recent dry spell pulled the monthly total into deficit on July 13. July typically delivers a third of the season’s total rainfall. Bhopal, for instance, gets 14 of its 39-inch seasonal average in July alone. Jabalpur receives the most rain among major cities, over 17 inches. Statewide, July accounts for up to 40% of the season’s total quota.
Madhya Pradesh’s normal seasonal rainfall stands at 37.3 inches. Bhopal, Indore, Jabalpur and Gwalior each average 38 to 39 inches.
Dewas leads, Alirajpur lags
Dewas district has received the most rain in the state this season, 18 inches, 102% above normal. Indore and Sehore have recorded 14 inches each, Harda 15 inches, and Bhopal 13.1 inches.
Several other districts, including Ujjain, Ratlam, Rajgarh, Raisen, Vidisha, Narmadapuram, Jabalpur, Sagar and Balaghat, are also running ahead of normal.
Alirajpur has fared the worst, receiving just 2.25 inches of rain, 74% below normal.
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