Jammu and Kashmir will receive normal to below-normal rainfall during this year’s monsoon season, the J&K Meteorological Centre said Friday — but not before an unusually wet June gives the region a head start that much of India will not get.
While the India Meteorological Department projects below-normal rainfall for most of the country in June, J&K sits in a small group of regions expected to see higher-than-average rainfall that month. The J&K MeT centre made the forecast official on X.
“Above-normal rainfall over many parts of J&K MET subdivision during June 2026.”— J&K Meteorological Centre, official post on X, May 30, 2026
That opening burst matters. June rains recharge rivers, fill reservoirs, and set soil moisture levels that carry crops through the hotter months. A wet June followed by a lean season is a far better scenario than a dry one from the start.
Eastern J&K and Ladakh fare better
The eastern parts of Jammu and Kashmir and the Ladakh region carry a more optimistic forecast across the full four-month season. The IMD projects normal to above-normal rainfall in those areas from June through September — a meaningful distinction from the rest of the J&K subdivision and from the national trend.
“Normal to below-normal rainfall over many parts of J&K MET subdivision during June–September, except eastern parts of J&K and Ladakh region.”— J&K Meteorological Centre, citing IMD long-range forecast
What farmers and orchardists face
J&K’s economy runs heavily on rain-fed agriculture and horticulture. Apple growers in Kashmir, paddy farmers in Jammu, and saffron cultivators in Pampore all depend on the southwest monsoon to water crops and refill irrigation channels through summer.
A below-normal season — even one softened by a strong June — raises the risk of water stress in July and August, the critical growth months for most high-value crops. Groundwater levels, already under pressure from years of variable rainfall, are unlikely to recover fully during a lean season.
The IMD has not yet issued a district-level breakdown for J&K. Farmers and water authorities will watch the June rains closely to gauge whether the seasonal outlook worsens or improves as the monsoon progresses.
Heat will add to the pressure. The IMD projects above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most of India in June, and J&K is not exempt. Higher temperatures accelerate snowmelt in the upper reaches of the Himalayas, which can initially boost river flows — but risks depleting glacial reserves faster than they replenish.
Support Us To Sustain Independent Environmental Journalism In India.
Keep Reading
Despite The Ban, How Gutkha Became MP’s Most Common Household Habit
Betwa River Origin Dried Up, Volunteers Revived It in Just 7 Days
