El Nino to end by June, Making way for La Niña; What you need to know

El Niño, known for its global impact on weather patterns and agricultural production, is expected to fade away by June, according to the latest forecast from the U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC). However, this could lead to the emergence of the La Niña climate pattern in the second half of the year.

In April 2024, small regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean had below-average sea surface temperatures, while the equatorial area had above-average temperatures.

El Nino to end by June

The latest weekly Niño index values remained between +0.5°C and +0.8°C in all regions, except for Niño-3, at +0.3°C. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted throughout the month, with negative anomalies from the Date Line to the eastern part of the ocean. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western equatorial Pacific, while upper-level winds were near average. Convection was near average across the equatorial area and Indonesia. These conditions indicated the weakening of El Niño and the transition toward a neutral phase.

The latest weekly Niño index values remained between +0.5°C and +0.8°C in all regions, except for Niño-3, at +0.3°C. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted throughout the month, with negative anomalies from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western equatorial Pacific, while upper-level winds were near average. Convection was near average across the equatorial Pacific and Indonesia. These conditions indicated the weakening of El Niño and the transition toward a neutral phase.

The latest forecast from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) predicts a transition to a neutral phase. La Niña is expected to develop during July-September 2024 and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The forecast team relies on dynamical model guidance, which suggests La Niña could form as early as June-August 2024, with higher confidence in the following seasons. La Niña typically follows strong El Niño events, adding confidence to the model favoring La Niña.

Cycles last 2-7 years, affect crops, global impact

The El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral phase cycle typically lasts two to seven years. These weather patterns can cause wildfires, cyclones, and prolonged droughts, impacting farmers worldwide. In Latin America, they have affected wheat, soy, and corn crops, damaging farming-dependent economies. Last year, hot and dry weather prompted India to restrict rice exports after a poor monsoon, while wheat output in Australia took a hit. However, heavier rains in the Americas boosted farming in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains.

Experts warn Latin American nations to stay on high alert, as a rapid switch to La Niña could leave populations and crops with little time to recover. Last month, Australia’s weather bureau announced the end of the El Niño event.

Sabrin Chowdhury, the head of commodities at BMI, stated, “La Niña is expected to affect wheat and corn production in the US, and soybean, barley, wheat, and corn in Latin America, including Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The weather phenomenon is associated with long-lasting droughts in the Americas region, leading to poor crop quality and reduced average yields, worsening global supply issues.”