India’s summer planting season has fallen off a cliff. Farmers had sown just 18.27 million hectares with kharif crops as of June 25, down nearly 23 percent from 23.65 million hectares a year earlier, according to figures released by the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.
The gap, 5.37 million hectares, traces directly back to the sky. Rainfall between June 1 and July 1 came in 38 percent below average, the India Meteorological Department said. The monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, three days late, and has moved sluggishly since.
Every Major Crop Is Behind
Oilseeds have taken the hardest hit. Sown area dropped from 3.64 million hectares last year to 1.7 million hectares this year, a decline of 1.94 million hectares. Rice acreage fell by 865,000 hectares, to 2.58 million hectares. Pulses dropped from 2.15 million hectares to 1.49 million hectares. Cotton sowing is down 1.57 million hectares.
Pushan Sharma, director at Crisil Intelligence, said the slow monsoon across western and central India has delayed transplanting of paddy, cotton, pulses, and horticultural crops such as onion and tomato. He said the eventual damage to output will depend on how rain falls in July and August, the months that typically bring 60 to 70 percent of monsoon rainfall.
Drought or near-drought conditions covered 41.2 percent of India’s land area as of July 1, according to the National Drought Monitor run by IIT Gandhinagar. That figure stood at 37.1 percent a week earlier and just 19.6 percent a month ago.
Western India, home to Maharashtra, Gujarat, and parts of Karnataka, is worst off, with 71 percent of its area in drought. The northeast follows at 62 percent, central India at 53 percent, and the north at 46 percent.
111 districts flagged as high risk
The agriculture ministry has identified 111 districts, spread across 12 states including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Bihar, as high priority. Each combines a weak monsoon forecast with irrigation coverage below 25 percent, leaving farmers with no backup if rain fails.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said 315 of India’s 724 districts could see deficient rainfall this season. [FE link pending]
Dams are running dry. National storage stood at 26.37 percent of capacity, against 66.114 billion cubic metres recorded at the same time last year, per the Central Water Commission. In the south, reservoirs held just 20.76 percent of capacity, with Karnataka at 14.71 percent and Telangana at 13.92 percent.
Relief May Be Coming
The IMD expects the monsoon to advance into Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, and Rajasthan in the coming days, with a low-pressure system forming over the northwest Bay of Bengal around July 3 expected to keep it active over central India for five to six days.
But forecasters warn a strengthening El Niño, among the strongest on record, typically weakens monsoon rainfall. For the roughly 55 to 60 percent of India’s farmland that depends entirely on rain, July now carries the weight of the entire season.
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