A new study has found that many medium-sized cities, particularly in India, could warm significantly faster than their surrounding rural areas even if global temperatures rise by just 2°C — the upper limit set by the Paris Agreement.
The research, led by scientists at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in the United Kingdom and published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on February 4, analysed 104 cities with populations between 300,000 and one million across Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas.
What the study found
Researchers combined advanced climate projections with machine-learning models trained on satellite data to measure daytime land surface temperatures — recorded at around 1:30 pm — in each city and its surrounding rural areas.
They found that in 81 per cent of the cities studied, daytime land surface temperatures are projected to rise faster than those in surrounding rural areas under a 2°C global warming scenario. In 16 per cent of cities, mostly in India and China, this additional warming could be 50 to 112 per cent higher than surrounding regions.
Lead author Dr Sarah Berk, a PhD student at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, said traditional climate models fail to capture these dynamics. “While global climate models are essential for projecting future temperature changes, they are limited in their ability to capture the trends of smaller cities. Even high-resolution global models can only predict changes for the largest urban areas or megacities,” she said.
Why India stands out
India emerges as a particular hotspot in the study. Several Tier-II Indian cities — including Jalandhar, Patiala, Hisar, and Erode — are projected to experience additional warming of up to 0.7 to 0.8°C above their rural surroundings. Cities like Patiala could see additional warming of 1.5 to 2°C — up to 100 per cent more than nearby rural areas.
Co-author Professor Manoj Joshi, from the Climatic Research Unit at UEA, explained why monsoon regions are especially affected. “Monsoonal or humid areas in general emerge because humid areas don’t warm as much as arid areas, as evaporation limits warming somewhat. In urban areas, evaporation is limited, so warming is greater,” he said.
Rural landscapes in humid regions benefit from vegetation and moisture that cool the surface through evaporation. Cities, built largely from concrete and asphalt, lack this natural cooling mechanism.
Are cities prepared?
Many Indian cities rely on district- or state-level climate projections that may not capture localised urban heat trends. When urban heat amplification is factored in, the number of cities projected to exceed 3°C of warming rises from three to 26.
Asked whether Tier-II cities are equipped to handle projected heat stress, Azhar was direct. “Short answer is no,” he said, noting that interventions common in developed countries — community cooling centres, heat hotlines, and early warning systems — remain limited in India.
Joshi echoed the need for action. “Urban heat stress under climate change is an increasing concern, heightening their vulnerability to rising temperatures,” he said. “These findings underscore the importance of investigating the effects of climate change on urban heat exposure, since climate change results in an increased frequency of extreme heat events, which can have severe human health impacts including increased mortality.”
The 18 Indian cities analysed in the study include Jalandhar, Patiala, Hisar, Bikaner, Mathura, Erode, Bijapur, Rohtak, Bathinda, and Gaya, together representing millions of people facing increasing heat exposure in the decades ahead.
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