Bad News: Below-normal monsoon is predicted from June to Sept by Skymet

Skymet, a weather forecasting agency, has predicted that the monsoon from June to September will be “below normal”, which could negatively affect agriculture in India. The agency has estimated that there will be 868.6 mm of rain during the four-month period, which is equivalent to 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

For the past four years, India’s southwest monsoon has been above normal due to La Niña, but now that La Niña has ended, the probability of an El Niño occurrence is increasing. Skymet predicts that El Niño will dominate during the monsoon season, causing a weakening of the monsoon.

Predicts rainfall deficit

Skymet has forecast that rains are likely to reduce over the northern and central parts of the country. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are expected to have a severe rainfall deficit during the monsoon months of July and August. Skymet said agriculture regions of northern India, namely Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall in the second half of the season.

El Nino and La Nina are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather around the world. El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years, but according to the US government’s National Ocean Service, they do not occur on a regular schedule.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet to issue its monsoon forecast, but has predicted above-normal temperatures this summer.

Farmers usually start sowing summer-sown crops from June 1, when monsoon rains usually reach India. Planting continues until the beginning of August. A below-normal monsoon may harm food production in the country at this time, while unseasonal rains in March are expected to affect rabi crop production.

Monsoon chances according to Skymet

June – 99% of LPA (Long Period Average (LPA) for June = 165.3 mm)

• 70 percent chance of normal rain
• 10 per cent chance of above normal rainfall
• 20 per cent chance of rain being below normal

July – 95% of LPA (LPA for July = 280.5 mm rainfall)

• 50 per cent chance of normal rain
• 20 per cent chance of above normal rainfall
• 30 per cent chance of below normal rainfall

August – 92% of LPA (LPA for August = 254.9 mm rainfall)

• 20% chance of normal rain

• Chance of above normal rainfall 20%

• There is a 60 per cent chance of rain being below normal

September – 90% of LPA (LPA for September = 167.9 mm rainfall)

• 20 per cent chance of normal rain
• 10 per cent chance of above normal rainfall
• 70 per cent chance of rain being below normal

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