Summer has returned to Madhya Pradesh in the middle of July. Day temperatures have crossed 36 degrees Celsius in several cities, and residents are stepping out in heat gear more suited to April than monsoon season.
The spike follows a break in heavy rainfall. The India Meteorological Department’s Bhopal centre says the state has gone six straight days without heavy or very heavy rain. Clouds still hang over many cities, but they are producing little more than drizzle.
The state has received 241.8 mm of rain so far this season, against a normal of 260 mm — a 7 percent shortfall, according to the weather department.
The deficit is not even across the state. Eastern Madhya Pradesh, covering the Jabalpur, Sagar, Shahdol and Rewa divisions, has received 21 percent less rain than average. Western districts, including Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Narmadapuram and the Gwalior-Chambal region, are down 6 percent.
Weather expert Shailendra Kumar Nayak, commenting on the broader monsoon slowdown across the state, said the systems that normally drive rain into Madhya Pradesh have either weakened or shifted away, which is why most areas are getting cloud cover without real rainfall.
No heavy rain in sight
The forecast offers little relief. IMD Bhopal has predicted only light rain for Wednesday in a band of districts including Indore, Ujjain, Chhindwara, Mandla and Singrauli.
Elsewhere, the outlook is worse. Bhopal, Gwalior, Sagar, Jabalpur and roughly 30 other districts are under heat alerts, with no heavy rain expected for the next five days.
A month that decides the season
July matters more than any other month for Madhya Pradesh’s monsoon. The state typically gets 40 percent of its seasonal rainfall in July alone. Bhopal alone usually receives 14 inches of its 39-inch annual average this month.
So far, the picture is mixed. Dewas leads the state with 18 inches of rain, 102 percent above normal. Bhopal has received 13.1 inches. But Alirajpur, in the west, has recorded just two and a half inches — 74 percent below normal, the worst shortfall in the state.
With the monsoon trough stalled and no major rain system in sight, farmers and city residents alike are watching the skies for the next shift.
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