Amazon’s 2023 drought linked to climate change, 30 million affected

A new report by climate scientists says that climate change was the main reason behind the serious drought in the Amazon River Basin in 2023. The study, conducted by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) team, found that while El Niño, a natural weather pattern, also played a role, it was not as significant as previously thought.

The researchers looked at weather data, drought measures, and models from June to December in the Amazon region. They discovered that both El Niño and climate change contributed to less rain, but climate change also caused higher temperatures, leading to more water evaporating from plants and soil.

This combination of less rain and increased evaporation resulted in what the scientists call an extraordinary “agricultural drought.” They say that global warming made this condition 30 times more likely. Currently, global temperatures are 1.2°C (2.16°F) higher than before the Industrial Revolution, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“As the Amazon drought worsened in 2023, many people pointed to El Niño to explain the event,” said Dr Ben Clarke, lead author of the study. “While El Niño did lead to even lower levels of rainfall, our study shows that climate change is the main driver of the drought through its influence on higher temperatures.” 

Amazon faces severe drought challenges

The Amazon has had some rain recently, but it’s uncertain if El Niño will get stronger in the coming months and if the drought will persist. The vast Amazon rainforest, spanning countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, is crucial for biodiversity and acts as a major carbon sink, helping the global climate. Deforestation and higher temperatures have made the rainforest drier, jeopardizing its ability to absorb carbon.

Around 30 million people who depend on the Amazon River faced challenges during the intense drought. Crops dried up, boats couldn’t travel for supplies, and communities, especially Indigenous and river communities, felt isolated. Warmer waters due to the drought altered fish migration, impacting a vital food source.

The authors point to further evidence of their findings by detailing additional impacts that climate change brought to the region. Each passing year, the dry season is becoming longer and harsher. The year 2023, the hottest on record, saw an exceptionally warm North Atlantic Ocean keeping rain clouds away, and triggering a series of heatwaves that led to record wildfires.

“These are all footprints of climate change and greatly contributed to this drought,” Regina Rodrigues, co-author of the study and professor of physical oceanography at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil, said in the press conference. “While droughts are key part of this biome’s history, they are becoming increasingly stronger and widespread.”

Severe Amazon drought impacts millions

If global warming reaches 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the Amazon could face four times as many agricultural droughts of this scale every 10 to 15 years, leading to reduced rainfall, soil water, and reservoir levels, warn researchers.

In 2023, the Amazon faced a dry spell starting in June with below-average rainfall. Initially affecting the northern part, the whole region experienced drought by September. Major rivers, like Solimões and Negro, hit their lowest levels in 120 years. Over 30 million people in Brazil, Peru, and Colombia, especially Indigenous and rural communities, felt severe impacts, with isolation lasting months.

Patricia Pinho from the Amazon Environmental Research Institute stressed the urgency to adapt to climate change. She highlighted the need to invest in the Amazon ecosystem and its communities for a warmer world. The dry Amazon doesn’t only affect people but also the forest itself, with scientists studying potential tree mortality and reduced growth.

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