Climate scientists are tracking an unusually fast collapse of current La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. New forecasts suggest a strong El Niño event could emerge by summer 2026, with potential consequences for global weather patterns and India’s crucial monsoon season.
What’s Happening in the Pacific
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has issued aggressive predictions for El Niño development this year. Pacific wind patterns are already shifting, signaling a major transition is underway.
“New ECMWF guidance aggressively predicts the development of a planet-warming El Niño this year, with changes in Pacific wind patterns signaling that a transition is underway,” wrote Ben Noll, meteorologist for Washington Post, on social media platform X.
Dylan Federico, meteorologist with WSVN 7 News in South Florida, noted the speed of change. “The brand new ECMWF Seasonal calls for La Nina to quickly collapse this Spring, with a moderate to strong El Nino developing by the Summer,” he wrote on X.
Most estimates point to El Niño conditions developing between May and July 2026. The event could reach moderate to strong intensity, according to current models.
The speed of La Niña’s collapse has surprised even veteran meteorologists. Eric Webb, an ENSO expert who has studied these patterns extensively, called it unprecedented.
“I’ve closely studied/followed ENSO for the better part of the last 10-15 yrs. I can confidently say that this is the biggest mid-winter collapse of La Nina that I’ve ever seen in real-time,” Webb wrote on X. “It’s incredible to see westerly wind bursts out to the International Dateline this early in winter.”
Beneath the ocean surface, data reveals substantial warming at depths of 100 to 250 meters in the west Pacific. This subsurface heat is driving the weakening of La Niña and the anticipated shift toward El Niño.
What El Niño Means
El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a natural climate cycle. During El Niño events, warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific typically raise global average temperatures. The phenomenon also disrupts established rainfall patterns worldwide.
Some experts caution against assuming major global temperature impacts. Paul Roundy, atmospheric scientist at University of Albany, sees differences from past strong events.
“The potentially developing El Niño event is evolving similarly to 1997, but many things could end or blunt that evolution before it would reach that outcome,” Roundy wrote on X. “The event is NOT expected to produce a huge global temperature spike like 2023-2024, whether or not it becomes strong. The reason is that the high latitude SST pattern does not support a big warm signal this year.”
India Faces Monsoon Concerns
India faces particular risks from El Niño’s return. Past El Niño events have frequently coincided with reduced rainfall during the country’s summer monsoon season, which typically runs from June to September.
The monsoon delivers most of India’s annual rainfall. Suppressed monsoon rains can trigger agricultural distress, water shortages, and economic disruptions across the country. Many previous El Niño events have been linked to failed monsoon seasons and associated droughts.
This potential El Niño emerges after three years of record-breaking heat. The period from 2023 to 2025 has shattered multiple monthly and annual temperature records. The warming resulted partly from the 2023-2024 El Niño event, along with other factors including decreased aerosols from shipping fuel regulations and volcanic eruptions.
This three-year period could become the first to cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold above pre-industrial averages from 1850-1900. International climate agreements have identified this threshold as critical for avoiding severe climate impacts.
Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, has projected temperature trends for coming years. “I expect 2026 will likely end up similar to 2023 and 2025 at approximately 1.4C above preindustrial, while 2027 will likely be considerably warmer (conditional on El Nino),” he wrote on X.
Climate analysts continue monitoring Pacific Ocean conditions closely. The current atmospheric and oceanic signals resemble patterns observed before the 2023-2024 El Niño, which contributed significantly to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record.
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