As COP30 opens in Belém, a stark new warning emerges. The latest State of the Cryosphere Report 2025 reveals that Earth’s ice is vanishing faster than ever recorded. Glaciers, ice sheets, and polar sea ice are melting at rates scientists once thought impossible, pushing sea levels higher and threatening global stability.
Earth’s ice nearing collapse point
The 2025 State of the Cryosphere Report shows that maintaining current warming levels of 1.2 degrees Celsius will likely generate several meters of sea-level rise over coming centuries. The report notes that even current temperatures are too high to maintain long-term stability of glaciers and ice sheets, with thresholds for collapse likely at just 1 degree Celsius of warming for polar ice sheets.
More than 50 leading cryosphere scientists contributed to the assessment, which details accelerating melt since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. The report warns that costs of loss and damage from continued high emissions leading towards 3 degrees Celsius will be extreme, with many regions experiencing sea-level rise or water resource loss well beyond adaptation limits in coming decades.
Dr. James Kirkham, Chief Scientist to the Ambition on Melting Ice high-level group and a report author, said landmark science published in 2025 shows beyond doubt that even current temperatures are too high to maintain the long-term stability of glaciers and ice sheets. “Preserving the Earth’s cryosphere now means reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 and lowering temperatures towards 1 degree thereafter,” Kirkham stated.
Between 2000 and 2023, global glaciers outside the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica lost an average of 273 gigatons each year, with ice loss 36 percent higher in the second half of that period compared with the first. Central Europe and the Caucasus experienced the greatest relative losses, shedding 39 percent and 35 percent of their ice respectively during this time.
Polar oceans face irreversible change
The Arctic Ocean has seen particularly dramatic changes. Combined Arctic and Antarctica sea ice hit its lowest area ever in February 2025. The report notes that sea ice at both poles has declined year-round, not just during summer minimums.
Ocean acidification has reached critical levels in polar waters. Dr. Helen Findlay of Plymouth Marine Laboratories in the UK noted that polar oceans are undergoing massive disruptions that will change these environments at a very basic level, from corrosive waters to slowdown of ocean currents that will last hundreds or thousands of years. “These changes have huge consequences for the rest of the planet,” Findlay said. “Halting carbon dioxide emissions is the only way to stop this.”
The report confirms that permafrost is now a net source of carbon emissions, releasing more carbon into the atmosphere than these ecosystems absorb in the growing season. This feedback loop threatens to accelerate warming further.
Despite the dire findings, scientists stress that the worst impacts can still be avoided. The report references new pathways developed by Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute showing that aggressive emissions cuts starting in 2025, combined with sustainable carbon dioxide removal, could return global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 after overshoot peaks as high as 1.8 degrees.
“The best and worst part of these findings is that none of this damage is necessary,” said Pam Pearson, ICCI’s Director. “We have all the tools to change, as the new pathways detail. We just need to use them.”
COP30 faces rising seas warning
The assessment arrives as global leaders gather in Belém, Brazil for COP30. The report mentions that the COP30 host city itself is vulnerable to climate change impacts, with the site becoming beachfront should 10 meters of sea-level rise be reached, which the IPCC notes cannot be ruled out by 2300 with current emissions.
Kirkham concluded that policymakers at COP30 must stop denying physical reality and finally deliver the deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions needed to protect global security from accelerating ice losses.
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