India Saw Largest Emissions Increase in 2024, What’s Fueling Growth?

India recorded the largest absolute increase in greenhouse gas emissions among all countries in 2024, according to a United Nations report released just days before world leaders gather in Brazil for the COP30 climate conference. The finding underscores a troubling reality: global efforts to curb climate change remain dangerously inadequate.

Coal Remains King in India’s Energy Mix

The Emissions Gap Report 2025, published by the UN Environment Programme on November 4, reveals that even if all countries fulfill their current climate pledges, global temperatures will still rise between 2.3 and 2.5 degrees Celsius this century. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to well below 2 degrees, with efforts to stay under 1.5 degrees.

India’s emissions grew by 3.6 percent in 2024, the second-highest growth rate after Indonesia’s 4.6 percent. However, India’s increase in total emissions volume surpassed all other nations in absolute terms. The country now ranks as the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind China and the United States.

Coal remains the primary driver of India’s rising emissions, supplying nearly half of the country’s electricity generation. Industrial expansion, cement production, and increasing transport demands have further accelerated the carbon footprint. Despite these increases, India’s per capita emissions remain below the global average, reflecting the country’s large population and ongoing development needs.

“While India’s per capita emissions remain below the global average, its overall carbon footprint continues to expand as industrial activity and energy demand surge,” the report states. The growth reflects India’s economic development trajectory as millions continue to gain access to electricity and modern infrastructure for the first time.

India Missing Key Climate Reporting Deadlines

The report identifies six countries as the world’s largest emitters: China, the United States, India, the European Union, Russia, and Indonesia. In terms of historical responsibility, the United States has produced the most cumulative carbon dioxide emissions to date, followed by China and the European Union. This historical context remains central to India’s position in international climate negotiations.

India has not yet submitted its Common Reporting Tables, a standardized greenhouse gas inventory required under the Paris Agreement’s Enhanced Transparency Framework. More than 100 other countries have also failed to submit these reports, which are designed to track national emissions and progress toward climate targets.

Global Emissions Hit Record High

The broader global picture painted by the report is equally concerning. Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 57.7 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2024, a 2.3 percent increase from 2023. This growth rate is more than four times higher than the average annual increase during the 2010s.

Under current policies, the planet is heading toward 2.8 degrees of warming this century. This represents a slight improvement from last year’s projection of 3.1 degrees, but much of this apparent progress is misleading. The report notes that 0.1 degree of the improvement comes from methodological updates in how emissions data are calculated. Another 0.1 degree of progress will be canceled if the United States withdraws from the Paris Agreement as planned in January 2026.

The G20 economies, which account for approximately 80 percent of global emissions, are collectively off track to meet even their 2030 climate targets. Only seven G20 members are likely to achieve their pledges with existing policies. The report warns that few G20 countries are on a clear trajectory toward their net-zero emission goals.

“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. She was referring to the Nationally Determined Contributions, the climate pledges countries submitted in 2020 and the new pledges announced this year ahead of COP30.

World’s Largest Emitters Show Mixed Results

“While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop,” Andersen added.

The report warns that global temperatures will temporarily exceed the 1.5-degree target. The best-case scenario involves a temporary overshoot of approximately 0.3 degrees before cooling later this century, but this depends on immediate and drastic emissions cuts. To achieve this outcome, countries would need to reduce emissions by 26 percent by 2030 and 46 percent by 2035, compared to 2019 levels.

Only 60 countries covering 63 percent of global emissions have submitted or announced new climate pledges as of September this year, despite a Paris Agreement requirement to submit updated plans by February 2025. Among major emitters, only the European Union decreased its emissions in 2024.

The financial gap between climate ambition and available resources remains vast. Developing countries estimate they need approximately $5.3 trillion to meet their climate commitments. India has consistently argued that developed economies have failed to deliver the $100 billion in annual climate finance promised under the UN climate framework. Indian negotiators are expected to raise this issue again at COP30 as developing nations prepare their next round of climate targets for 2035.

Rachel Cleetus, senior policy director of the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, called the findings “alarming, enraging, and heartbreaking.” She said years of insufficient action from richer nations and obstruction by fossil fuel interests are directly responsible for the current crisis.

Current Emissions and Growth Rates (2024)

Richard Black, Director of Policy and Strategy at Ember, a global energy think tank, offered a more optimistic view of renewable energy deployment. “National renewable energy plans paint a more optimistic picture of economies embracing the clean energy transition, and deployment rates are more optimistic still,” he said. He noted that drivers such as energy security and affordability are pushing clean energy adoption beyond climate concerns alone.

Historical Cumulative CO₂ Emissions (All-Time)

The report emphasizes that proven solutions already exist to meet climate goals, from rapid expansion of renewable energy to tackling methane emissions. However, implementation remains the critical challenge. Each year of delayed action locks in carbon-intensive infrastructure and increases future costs while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable communities the hardest.

For India, the challenge lies in balancing development needs with emission reductions. As the country continues to industrialize and expand energy access to its population, the pressure to transition away from coal intensifies. The decisions made in the coming years will determine not only India’s emissions trajectory but also its role in global climate negotiations and the broader fight against warming.

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