India’s solar energy potential could face significant declines due to climate change, according to a new study published in Energy and Climate Change. The research warns that rising greenhouse gas emissions may reduce surface solar radiation, or SSR, in central, southern, and eastern India by up to 10 percent under high emission scenarios. SSR measures the sun’s energy reaching the Earth’s surface, a key factor for solar power planning.
The study highlights that solar energy is highly sensitive to weather conditions and long-term climate changes. Even small shifts in solar radiation can affect how much electricity solar panels produce over their 20-25 year lifespan.
Climate change threatens India’s solar
“Our results suggest that solar developers need to look beyond annual averages and consider regional and temporal variability in solar radiation,” said Ashwin Jadhav, doctoral researcher at the Department of Atmospheric and Space Sciences, Savitribai Phule Pune University. He added that northwestern India shows more stable solar potential, while eastern and southern regions may require hybrid solutions combining solar and wind power or storage systems.
The researchers developed a high-resolution dataset for India’s SSR using nine global climate models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). They corrected biases in the models and statistically downscaled the data to a fine 0.25°×0.25° resolution. This approach improved the reliability of projections, enabling more accurate assessments of future solar energy potential. The study said the corrected models showed a strong correlation with historical observations, increasing confidence in their projections.
Future projections were made under three emission scenarios: low (SSP1–2.6), intermediate (SSP2–4.5), and high (SSP5–8.5). Under the low emission scenario, most regions might see only minor reductions in SSR of 0.5 to 1 percent per decade, while parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plains and northeastern states could experience slight increases due to reduced aerosol levels and cloud changes. The study further mentioned that intermediate and high emission scenarios could lead to pronounced declines across large areas of India, particularly in central, southern, and eastern regions.
The research linked the projected reductions to higher atmospheric turbidity and increased post-monsoon cloud cover. These changes could directly affect solar power generation in India’s main renewable energy zones. “Developers should also consider the projected long-term decline or stagnation in solar availability when planning the lifespan of solar photovoltaic farms,” Jadhav explained.
Solar Capacity Grows, Generation Lags
India has been rapidly expanding its solar capacity. As of August 31, 2025, the country’s installed solar power capacity reached 123,130 megawatts, with nearly 14 percent coming from the five southern states. Despite this growth, electricity generation from solar sources remains lower than capacity. Data from the Union Ministry of New & Renewable Energy showed India’s solar generation as of July 2025 at 12,100 megawatts.
An earlier analysis by Climate Analytics, a global climate science and policy institute, highlighted the gap between installed capacity and actual generation. The analysis said weather factors such as cloud cover, aerosols, and extreme events are significant contributors. Jadhav noted that historical periods of “global dimming” and “brightening” demonstrate how atmospheric conditions can affect solar potential.
The study also emphasizes the need for climate-resilient energy strategies. Jadhav and Rohini Lakshman Bhawar, assistant professor at Savitribai Phule Pune University, said high-resolution solar projections can guide solar park siting, grid integration, and technology planning. They recommend incorporating cloud-level and aerosol data into forecasting systems to improve SSR predictions.
The study’s findings have practical implications for India’s renewable energy targets. The country aims to achieve 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel-based electricity capacity by 2030, with solar contributing roughly 300 gigawatts. Accurate projections of solar availability are essential for reaching this goal and ensuring long-term energy reliability.
Future planning for solar reliability
Previous international studies have found similar trends. Research covering Europe, Africa, and the United States predicted regional increases or decreases in solar radiation due to cloud cover and aerosols. In India, earlier analyses indicated potential declines of 0.5 to 10 percent in solar energy output depending on location and season. The new study said it fills a gap by providing high-resolution, bias-corrected projections specifically for India, helping policymakers and developers plan for long-term changes.
Jadhav said he hopes to link climate projections with real-world solar panel performance and grid models. He aims to study how seasonal monsoon variability and extreme weather events may affect electricity generation. “Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing solar infrastructure that remains reliable under changing climate conditions,” he said.
The study concludes that India must account for climate-induced changes in solar radiation when expanding its renewable energy sector. Targeted solar park deployment, advanced forecasting, and hybrid systems could help mitigate the impact of declining SSR. With careful planning, the country can maintain its solar growth trajectory while addressing emerging climate risks.
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