The 2025 southwest monsoon season ended on September 30 with overall surplus rainfall across India, but nearly 20 percent of the country’s districts experienced a shortage of rain, according to official data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Between June 1 and September 30, India received 937.2 millimeters of rainfall, which is eight percent above the long-period average of 868.6 millimeters. This made 2025 the fifth wettest monsoon since 2001 and the second consecutive year of “above normal” rainfall.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra described the season as “very successful” but acknowledged that regional imbalances were stark. “Even though there were many rain-related disasters that struck various parts of the country, there was good rainfall distribution both spatially and temporally,” he said in New Delhi on Tuesday.
District-level disparities
While the country as a whole recorded a surplus, the distribution was far from even. Out of 727 districts tracked by the IMD, 135 fell in the “deficient” category and 11 in the “large deficient” category. Deficient rainfall is defined as 20 to 59 percent below normal, while large deficient means 60 to 99 percent below normal.
Deoria district in Uttar Pradesh recorded the sharpest shortfall with an 87 percent deficit, the highest departure from normal among all districts. West Jaintia Hills and South West Garo Hills in Meghalaya followed with 75 percent and 73 percent deficits respectively.
The state of Meghalaya, usually one of India’s rainiest, ended the season with a 42 percent deficit. Arunachal Pradesh recorded a 41 percent deficit, with 11 of its 16 districts facing shortages.
In contrast, Ladakh, which is typically arid, saw a 342 percent excess. Rajasthan also registered large excess rainfall at 63 percent above normal. All districts in northwest India recorded above-normal rainfall during the season.
State-level performance
Only four states, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, and Bihar, were classified as “deficient” in terms of seasonal averages.
East and northeast India together received 1,089.9 millimeters of rain, 20 percent below the seasonal normal of 1,367.3 millimeters. “Rainfall over east and northeast India has been deficient in many years in recent times. There is a trend that rainfall over this region is decreasing since 2020,” Mohapatra said, citing studies covering the past two decades.
On the other hand, northwest India reported 747.9 millimeters of rainfall, 27.3 percent above the normal of 587.6 millimeters, the highest in the region since 2001 and the sixth highest since 1901. Central India received 15.1 percent above normal rainfall, while the southern peninsula ended the season with nearly 10 percent more rain than average.
Delayed withdrawal and October outlook
Although September 30 marked the official end of the southwest monsoon, rains are expected to continue into October in several regions.
“Due to unfavourable conditions, we do not see any further withdrawal of the monsoon from central and eastern India during the next one week. The overall monsoon withdrawal may be delayed and would not be completed before October 12,” Mohapatra said.
A low-pressure system near Kutch is forecast to bring more rain to Gujarat and Maharashtra this week, while another system developing over the north Bay of Bengal is expected to affect Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra into early October.
The IMD projects that most parts of India will see above-normal rainfall during October, except Jammu and Kashmir and parts of southern Kerala and Tamil Nadu. This could be linked to the delayed withdrawal and multiple rain-bearing systems.
Northeast monsoon to follow
The northeast, or winter, monsoon typically begins around October 20 and affects Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Puducherry, and south interior Karnataka. The IMD expects above-normal rainfall for the region between October and December.
Day temperatures in October are likely to stay below normal in many areas, while night temperatures may remain warmer due to cloud cover.
The IMD noted that the current neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific Ocean are expected to shift briefly into a weak La Niña phase before returning to neutral. ENSO events influence global weather, including the Indian monsoon.
“La Niña will be for a short duration before neutral ENSO conditions are re-established,” Mohapatra said.
The uneven distribution of rain had direct effects on agriculture and daily life. The Ministry of Agriculture reported an overall Kharif crop acreage of 1,120 lakh hectares this year, which is 24 lakh hectares more than the normal area and seven lakh hectares more than in 2024. The surplus rainfall boosted sowing in several states.
At the same time, heavy rain triggered disasters in multiple regions. Cloudbursts, landslides, and floods were reported in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir. In contrast, districts like Deoria faced prolonged dry conditions that stressed farmers dependent on rain-fed agriculture.
Outlook for the coming months
Despite the mixed outcomes, the IMD forecasts a wet final quarter of the year. With above-normal rainfall expected over much of southern India, farmers in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh may benefit from the upcoming northeast monsoon.
The challenge, experts say, is to prepare for both extremes: excess rainfall in some regions and prolonged shortages in others. The 2025 monsoon underlined this divide, with record surpluses in Ladakh and Rajasthan, and severe deficits in districts like Deoria and parts of the northeast.
India’s water and agriculture planning, observers note, will need to keep pace with these variations as climate and weather trends continue to shift.
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