For the upcoming winter season, a “Triple Dip La Nina” appears to be in the offing, and better yet, current sea surface temperatures show a strong La Nina event. There is a 76% chance of a La Nina during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, favouring a transition to ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023 (57% chance).
The WMO World Long-Range Forecast Production Centers indicate that there is a 70% chance that the current La Nina conditions will extend into summer 2022, and a 50-60% chance through July- September 2022.
“Despite stubborn La Nina in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, warmer-than-widespread-average sea surface temperatures elsewhere are forecast to dominate the air temperature forecast for June-August 2022. However, the extent and strength of the predicted warming are smaller”, the WMO said.
What is La Nina?
The term La Nina refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere weather phenomenon related to the periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and central-eastern equatorial Pacific.
La Nina represents the cool phase of the ENSO cycle and means that ocean water temperatures are cooler than average.
La Nina is a weather pattern that begins in the Pacific Ocean. Warm ocean water and clouds move west during La Nina. The oceans play an important role in Earth’s climate. Normally, rain clouds form over warm ocean water. When strong winds move warm water, clouds and storms move, too
La Nina Criteria
- Average sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean were at least 0.5°C (0.9°F) cooler than the average for the previous month.
- The average anomaly of at least -0.5°C (-0.9°F) has persisted or is expected to persist for five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods.
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