India’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise by 1.4 percent in 2025, marking a sharp slowdown from the 4 percent increase recorded last year. The estimate comes from the Global Carbon Project’s annual Global Carbon Budget, released during the ongoing climate conference in Brazil. The study places India’s fossil fuel emissions at 3.19 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024 and projects a rise to 3.22 billion tonnes this year.
India’s Emissions Growth Shows Sharp Slowdown
The report links the slower growth to an early monsoon and strong output from renewable power. The study notes that “an early monsoon reduced cooling requirements in the hottest months.” It adds that rapid growth in solar power and other clean sources curbed the need for coal during peak demand.
Fossil fuel emissions include electricity generation, transport, industry, buildings and heating. These sources account for about 90 percent of global CO2 output. The rest largely comes from land-use change such as deforestation and the loss of natural ecosystems. CO2 contributes about three-quarters of all heat-trapping gases.
The Global Carbon Project is an international scientific effort that tracks global carbon sources and sinks. Its annual budget is widely used by governments and researchers to understand emission trends and to compare national performance. The study offers estimates rather than official national inventories, which take longer to compile.
The data shows that India’s emission growth has been slowing for more than a decade. The average annual rise during 2015-2024 was 3.6 percent, compared with 6.4 percent in 2005-2014. Researchers point to a larger economic base and steady gains in carbon intensity as possible reasons. A separate analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that emissions from India’s power sector fell in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year. The report linked the drop to good monsoon rainfall that lowered the need for cooling and irrigation.
The global picture shows fossil fuel emissions rising by about 1.1 percent in 2025 to a record 38.1 billion tonnes. But falling emissions from land-use change are expected to keep total global CO2 output roughly steady at 42 billion tonnes. The study notes that this year’s level is almost unchanged from 2024.
Global Trends Reveal Mixed Emission Shifts
China’s emissions are projected to grow by 0.4 percent. The United States is expected to record a 1.9 percent rise after years of decline. The study suggests that a cold start to the year, shifts in power generation and higher demand for electricity drove the US increase.
India accounts for about 8 percent of global fossil CO2 emissions. The report breaks down India’s expected changes by fuel type. Coal is projected to rise 1.7 percent. Oil is nearly flat at 0.1 percent. Gas is set to fall by 6.4 percent. Cement emissions are expected to rise by 9.9 percent.
The study shows that global land-use emissions are projected to fall by nearly 10 percent in 2025. The drop is linked to reduced deforestation and forest degradation in parts of South America. Land-use emissions have fallen by about one-third from levels in the 2000s. Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo account for more than half of global land-use emissions.
The report also highlights changes in global carbon sinks. Plants, soils and oceans absorb a large share of human-caused CO2 each year. The study states that the land sink appears to have recovered this year after two weak years linked to El Niño. But research published alongside the budget points to a long-term decline in the strength of both land and ocean sinks due to climate change. The study finds that sinks have been about 15 percent weaker over the past decade than they would have been without climate impacts.
CO2 Levels Near New High
The weakening of these sinks has added about 8 percent to the rise in atmospheric CO2 since 1960. The report notes that atmospheric CO2 is expected to reach 425.7 ppm in 2025, up from 280 ppm in pre-industrial times.
Global per-capita fossil emissions peaked in 2012 and have edged down since then. But total emissions remain high, and the remaining carbon budget for keeping warming to 1.5°C is small. The report estimates that the world has the equivalent of four years of current emissions left before that threshold is reached.
For India, the latest data points to a year of slower growth driven by weather patterns and rising renewable capacity. The figures underline the scale of national efforts to shift energy supply while meeting rising demand from a growing economy.
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