A new survey has revealed the precarious state of Himalayan brown bears in India’s Trans-Himalayan region, with only an estimated 130 to 220 individuals surviving across the entire Himalayan and Trans-Himalayan ranges of India and Pakistan.
The study covered more than 35,000 square kilometers of Ladakh’s harsh terrain and represents the first large-scale, systematic assessment of where these endangered bears actually live. Survey teams walked 4,012 trails over two years, recording 2,530 confirmed brown bear signs including tracks, scat, and diggings.
According to the study, It provides the first large-scale, systematic assessment of brown bear distribution and habitat suitability in the region and generates evidence directly relevant to conservation and development regulation.
Where the Bears Live
The research identified western Ladakh as the species’ stronghold, particularly the Drass, Suru, and Zanskar Valleys. These valleys consistently showed the highest probability of bear presence across different analytical models. The bears depend heavily on valley rangelands that provide seasonal vegetation, small mammals like marmots for prey, and reliable water access in an otherwise resource-poor environment.
The bears prefer moderately rugged landscapes between 3,000 and 4,500 meters above sea level. These mid-elevation zones offer ideal terrain for denning, foraging, and avoiding human-dominated areas. Rugged slopes and broken terrain prove especially important for female bears with cubs, providing secure denning sites during winter dormancy.
A smaller, more isolated population exists in Nubra Valley, but connectivity between subpopulations appears weak. This isolation could further fragment already small groups.
Why These Habitats Matter
Temperature emerged as a critical factor influencing where bears can survive. Areas with high seasonal temperature variation, typical of western Ladakh, offered the most favorable conditions. Such contrasts enable vegetation growth, prey movement, and the availability of suitable denning habitats.
The study found that bears tend to occupy areas with moderate daily temperature ranges, suggesting that microclimatic stability helps them balance foraging and denning needs in high-altitude environments. As per the study, “One of the most striking results was how strongly temperature variation influenced habitat suitability.”
The researchers warn that climate warming may push suitable conditions upslope into more limited and fragmented areas. This could compress the already restricted habitat available to these bears.
The landscape was divided into 10-by-10 kilometer grids, with each grid further broken into 5-by-5 kilometer cells to ensure consistent sampling. Survey teams used a mobile application called MSTrIPES to record bear signs systematically. The surveys ran from 2019 to 2020 and amounted to over 30,000 working days.
Because Himalayan brown bears are elusive, largely nocturnal, and occur at very low densities, direct sightings are rare. The research team relied on intensive sign-based surveys rather than trying to spot the animals themselves.
Researchers used occupancy modeling to account for the fact that animals may be present but remain undetected. They also employed a species distribution modeling approach called MaxEnt that predicts habitat suitability based on environmental conditions at locations where the bears are known to occur.
When Development Threatens Habitat
Over the past decade, Ladakh has been transformed by expanding road networks, defense infrastructure, renewable energy projects, and fast-growing tourism. Winter temperatures sometimes fall below minus 30 degrees Celsius, vegetation is sparse, and traditional agro-pastoralism relies heavily on shared rangelands.
The study notes that even moderate increases in human footprint sharply reduced habitat suitability, confirming the species’ sensitivity to disturbance. The most urgent priority involves protecting key valley systems such as Drass, Suru, Shargole, and Zanskar, which currently support some of the highest-quality bear habitat but lie largely outside of protected areas.
These valleys face growing pressure from road expansion, military construction, mining, and unregulated tourism. Habitat fragmentation may restrict the bears’ access to critical feeding and denning sites because they have large home ranges and move widely across valleys.
Engaging local communities is equally important for conservation success. Ladakh’s pastoralists often bear the brunt of livestock depredation, and human-bear conflict in the region adds to conservation challenges.
The study suggests several practical solutions. Predator-proof corrals could protect livestock. Infrastructure development regulations could limit habitat destruction. Improved waste management could reduce conflicts. Regulated grazing and carefully designed ecotourism initiatives could help reduce conflict while safeguarding habitats.
The Himalayan brown bear is classified as endangered on the IUCN Red List and receives the highest protection under Schedule I of India’s Wildlife Protection Act of 1972. Despite this legal protection, the species remains poorly studied in India, particularly in high-altitude Trans-Himalayan landscapes where only a few valley-level assessments had been conducted before this research.
What Comes Next
The researchers emphasize that reliable population estimates and information on habitat connectivity between valleys remain critical needs. Identifying potential corridors that connect isolated populations could help maintain genetic diversity and population viability.
As per the study, “Addressing these gaps through long-term monitoring, genetic studies, and climate-informed modeling will be central to securing the future for the Himalayan brown bear in the Trans-Himalayas.”
The findings have direct implications for policymakers and wildlife managers. The study provides baseline data that can guide decisions about where to focus conservation efforts and how to balance development with wildlife protection in a rapidly changing region.
Brown bears are large carnivores that can live up to 25 years in the wild. They go through a phase of dormancy or torpor lasting up to seven months during winter, when they do not eat, drink, or eliminate waste. This winter hibernation represents an important survival strategy in high-altitude, resource-limited areas.
The research demonstrates that western Ladakh holds the last major refuges for this subspecies in India. Without targeted conservation action, these refuges face increasing pressure from human activities that could push the bears toward local extinction.
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