The wild elephant population in India has fallen by nearly 18 percent over the past eight years, according to a new government report released on Tuesday. The latest Synchronous All-India Elephant Estimation (SAIEE) 2021–25 places the number of elephants at 22,446, compared to 27,312 recorded in 2017.
Officials said the two counts cannot be directly compared because the latest survey used a new DNA-based method. The report describes the current number as a “new baseline” for tracking future changes.
The new method, used for the first time, identifies individual elephants through genetic material collected from dung samples. “The earlier estimates were likely overestimates due to the methods used then,” said Dr. Qamar Qureshi, senior scientist at the Wildlife Institute of India, who helped lead the study. “This time we relied on DNA analysis, which provides more accurate results.”
Western Ghats Remain the Stronghold
The data shows that the Western Ghats continue to hold the largest elephant population, with 11,934 elephants, accounting for over half of India’s total. The North Eastern Hills and Brahmaputra floodplains follow with 6,559, while the Shivalik Hills and Gangetic plains host 2,062, and Central India and the Eastern Ghats together have 1,891 elephants.
| Region / State | 2025 Estimate | 2017 Estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karnataka | 6,013 | — | — |
| Assam | 4,159 | — | — |
| Tamil Nadu | 3,136 | — | — |
| Kerala | 2,785 | — | — |
| Uttarakhand | 1,792 | — | — |
| Odisha | 912 | — | — |
| Western Ghats (regional) | 11,934 | 14,587 | ↓ 2,653 |
| Northeastern Hills & Brahmaputra | 6,559 | 10,139 | ↓ 3,580 |
| Central India & Eastern Ghats | 1,891 | 3,128 | ↓ 1,237 |
DNA Sampling Offers Precision
The new survey method is modeled on India’s tiger estimation framework. Researchers divided forest habitats into small grids, collected dung samples, and analyzed them in laboratories to identify unique genetic profiles.
The survey covered an extraordinary range. Forest staff walked more than 493,000 kilometers across India’s forests, equal to circling the planet twelve times. They collected over 21,000 dung samples, later analyzed using 11 DNA markers to identify individual elephants. This level of precision is unmatched in India’s wildlife monitoring and forms the foundation for future censuses.
| Landscape / State | 2017 Population (Estimated) | 2025 Population (Estimated) | Apparent Change (2017 to 2025) | % Apparent Change | Trend |
| Total All India | 27,312 | 22,446 | -4,866 | -17.8% | Apparent Decline |
| 1. Western Ghats (Regional Total) | 11,864 (KA, KL, TN subset) | 11,934 | +70 | +0.6% | Apparent Stability/Increase |
| Karnataka | 6,049 | 6,013 | -36 | -0.6% | Apparent Stability |
| Kerala | 3,054 | 2,785 | -269 | -8.8% | Apparent Decline |
| Tamil Nadu | 2,761 | 3,136 | +375 | +13.6% | Apparent Increase |
| 2. North Eastern Hills & Brahmaputra Flood Plains (Regional Total) | 10,139 | 6,559 | -3,580 | -35.3% | Major Apparent Decline |
| Assam | 5,719 | 4,159 | -1,560 | -27.3% | Major Apparent Decline |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 1,614 | 617 | -997 | -61.8% | Most Serious Apparent Decline |
| Meghalaya | 1,754 | 677 | -1,077 | -61.4% | Most Serious Apparent Decline |
| West Bengal (North) | 488 | 676 | +188 | +38.5% | Apparent Increase |
| Nagaland | 446 | 252 | -194 | -43.5% | Significant Apparent Decline |
| Tripura | 102 | 153 | +51 | +50.0% | Apparent Increase |
| Manipur | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | Stable |
| Mizoram | 7 | 16 | +9 | +128.6% | Apparent Increase |
| 3. Central India & Eastern Ghats (Regional Total) | 3,174 (Includes JH, OD, CG, MP, MH (6), WB-S, AP (65)) | 1,891 | -1,283 | -40.4% | Major Apparent Decline |
| Odisha | 1,976 | 912 | -1,064 | -53.9% | Most Serious Apparent Decline |
| Jharkhand | 679 | 217 | -462 | -68.0% | Most Serious Apparent Decline |
| Chhattisgarh | 247 | 451 | +204 | +82.6% | Apparent Increase (Colonization) |
| Madhya Pradesh | 7 | 97 | +90 | +1285.7% | Major Apparent Increase (Colonization) |
| Andhra Pradesh | 65 | 120 | +55 | +84.6% | Apparent Increase |
| West Bengal (South) | 194 | 31 | -163 | -84.0% | Significant Apparent Decline |
| Maharashtra | 6 | 63 | +57 | +950.0% | Major Apparent Increase (Expansion) |
| 4. Shivalik Hills & Gangetic Plains (Regional Total) | 2,096 (Includes UK, UP, BR (25)) | 2,062 | -34 | -1.6% | Apparent Stability |
| Uttarakhand | 1,839 | 1,792 | -47 | -2.6% | Apparent Stability |
| Uttar Pradesh | 232 | 257 | +25 | +10.8% | Apparent Increase |
| Bihar | 25 | 13 | -12 | -48.0% | Apparent Decline |
The Western Ghats’ numbers also match recent state surveys that used traditional methods. Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala together host over half of India’s elephants, confirming the Western Ghats as the country’s main stronghold. The near-identical results across two survey methods show the reliability of the new DNA approach.
Over 20,000 dung samples were collected across 20 states, identifying 4,065 individual elephants. This genetic data, combined with ground surveys and satellite mapping, was fed into a statistical model to calculate the total population.
“Unlike tigers, elephants do not have unique physical markings,” explained Dr. Qureshi. “DNA analysis from dung gives us a way to distinguish individuals with precision. This is a major step forward for elephant conservation.”
The report warns that India’s elephants face growing pressures from shrinking habitats and human activity. In the Western Ghats, where elephants once roamed freely across continuous forest stretches, fragmentation has become severe. Expanding coffee and tea plantations, farmland fencing, roads, and development projects are breaking up traditional movement corridors.
“This fragmentation threatens habitat connectivity,” the report states. “Maintaining links between elephant populations is essential to prevent isolation and conflict.”
In Central India, mining activity has been identified as a key factor behind habitat loss. The report lists open-cast mines, power projects, and linear infrastructure such as railways and highways as major disruptions.
The report also notes elephants are reclaiming lands they had left for centuries. In Madhya Pradesh, elephants vanished a hundred years ago but have now reappeared. A small herd settled in Bandhavgarh Tiger Reserve in 2017, and others followed from neighboring states.
In Andhra Pradesh, elephants have returned after two centuries, migrating from Tamil Nadu and forming a new population. These returns show resilience, but they also bring new challenges. Many of these areas lack local experience with elephants, leading to rising conflict as people and animals share the same space again.
Dr. Qureshi said elephants in these regions face distress from both habitat degradation and frequent encounters with humans. “Deaths due to railways, power lines, and mining-related disturbances remain a serious concern,” he said.
Northeast Faces Special Challenges
The North East, which holds the second largest elephant population, presents its own set of problems. The report notes that historical exploitation of forests, mining, and tea plantation expansion have led to fragmentation and rising human-elephant conflict.
Elephants in the region are now confined to isolated patches surrounded by human settlements. The report calls for stronger law enforcement, protection of forest corridors, and community-based programs to reduce clashes.
The elephant estimation, originally scheduled for 2021, was delayed due to pandemic-related disruptions and difficulties conducting fieldwork in the North East. Officials said the data collection began in phases over four years and involved forest staff, scientists, and local communities across thousands of kilometers of forest trails.
The Environment Ministry had earlier shelved a version of the Status of Elephants in India 2022–23 report due to incomplete data from the North East. That version also suggested a fall in numbers, consistent with the new findings.
Experts have urged caution in interpreting the decline as an immediate crisis, noting that the methodology change means comparisons with earlier surveys are limited.
A wildlife biologist who works on elephant populations said the shift to genetic sampling marks “a turning point” in wildlife monitoring. “We need to review the full methodology before drawing conclusions about long-term decline,” the biologist said. “But this approach sets a new scientific standard for accuracy.”
The report emphasizes that India continues to host over 60% of the world’s remaining Asian elephants, making its conservation efforts critical to the species’ global survival.
Elephant Population Estimated 2017
| Region / State | Elephant Density (per km²) | Elephant Distribution Area (km²) | Estimated Elephant Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Region | |||
| Arunachal Pradesh | 0.23 | 7,000 | 1,614 |
| Assam | 0.38 | 14,050 | 5,719 |
| Meghalaya | 0.16 | 11,119 | 1,754 |
| Tripura* | 0.10 | 987 | 102 |
| Nagaland* | 0.45 | 1,000 | 446 |
| North Bengal | 0.25 | 1,933 | 488 |
| Manipur* | — | — | 7 |
| Mizoram* | — | — | 7 |
| Total (Northeast Region) | — | — | 10,139 |
| East-Central Region | |||
| Odisha | 0.16 | 4,156 | 1,976 |
| Jharkhand | — | — | 679 |
| Chhattisgarh | — | — | 247 |
| Bihar | — | — | 25 |
| Madhya Pradesh | — | — | 7 |
| South Bengal | — | — | 194 |
| Total (East-Central Region) | — | — | 3,128 |
| Northwest Region | |||
| Uttarakhand | 0.45 | 4,087 | 1,839 |
| Uttar Pradesh | — | — | 232 |
| Haryana | — | — | 7 |
| Himachal Pradesh | — | — | 7 |
| Total (Northwest Region) | — | — | 2,085 |
| Southern Region | |||
| Karnataka | 0.67 | 8,976 | 6,049 |
| Kerala | 0.32 | 9,675 | 3,054 |
| Maharashtra | — | — | 65 |
| Andhra Pradesh | — | — | 7 |
| Andaman & Nicobar Islands* | 0.14 | 133 | 19 |
| Tamil Nadu | — | — | 2,761 |
| Total (Southern Region) | — | — | 11,960 |
| Grand Total (India) | — | — | 27,312 |
Human Impact and Way Forward
The report highlights the need for a balanced approach that considers both elephant conservation and human safety. Increasing human-elephant conflict, especially in states like Odisha, Jharkhand, and Assam, has led to casualties on both sides. Electrocution and railway collisions remain the leading causes of elephant deaths, followed by habitat encroachment.
It recommends expanding wildlife corridors, stricter enforcement against illegal mining, and better coordination between forest departments and infrastructure agencies. The report also calls for awareness programs in villages that have recently seen elephants return to historical ranges.
Community engagement, the report notes, will be essential to prevent conflict as elephants move through new territories in search of food and space.
As India’s largest land mammal struggles to coexist with rapid development, experts say the new DNA-based census provides a clearer picture of where and how conservation efforts should focus.
“The science is more reliable now,” said Dr. Qureshi. “The next challenge is to use this data to secure habitats and reduce conflict. The elephant is a long-ranging species, it needs connected landscapes, not fragmented ones.”
The government plans to use the findings from SAIEE 2021–25 to update management plans under Project Elephant, which began in 1992 to protect elephant populations and their habitats.
With fewer elephants recorded and habitats under strain, the report serves as a reminder that conserving India’s elephants will depend on both stronger policy and public cooperation.
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