Iran fired two ballistic missiles on March 20, 2026, targeting Diego Garcia, a joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean, according to US, UK and Israeli officials. One missile broke apart mid-flight. The other was destroyed by US missile defences. Iran has denied responsibility.
Diego Garcia lies approximately 4,000 kilometres from Iran, roughly twice the maximum range Tehran has publicly declared for its ballistic missiles. The attack has raised immediate questions about how far Iranian missiles can actually travel, and whether Western Europe now falls within reach.
No evidence has emerged that Iran developed a new missile type. Analysts believe it most likely modified an existing design, though extending a missile’s range presents significant technical challenges.
Israel’s Warning
Israeli army chief of staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir said Iran fired a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile with a 4,000-kilometre range. “Berlin, Paris and Rome are directly at risk,” he said.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told CBS that the alliance “cannot confirm this claim at this time” but said he was examining it. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said no intelligence assessment suggests Iran is targeting Britain.
Former head of Britain’s Joint Forces Command General Sir Richard Barrens told the BBC the incident required a global reassessment of Iran’s capabilities. “Previously we thought Iran’s missiles had a range of 2,000 kilometres, while Diego Garcia is 3,800 kilometres away,” he said.
Dr Karen van Hippel, former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, warned the implications could stretch further. “If these missiles reach Diego Garcia, it means the Iranians are developing intercontinental missiles that could reach the continental United States,” she told the BBC.
A Warning, Not an Attack?
Iran had previously set a self-imposed 2,000-kilometre limit on its missile programme, keeping Israel in range while avoiding alarm in Europe. That limit now appears abandoned.
Some analysts believe the launch was a calculated signal rather than a genuine strike attempt. “It’s not like they’re going to attack London or Paris tomorrow,” said Danny Strinovich, former Israeli military intelligence officer at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “But it helps them shape their defence strategy.”
The key question remains whether Iran has mastered the guidance technology needed to hit targets accurately at such distances. That, experts say, is still unproven.
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