Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Assam, and West Bengal are facing a new and dangerous climate reality. Regions long considered humid and weather-resilient are now among India’s worst hotspots for simultaneous droughts and heatwaves, a finding that challenges decades of climate assumptions.
A new study published in the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences on February 13, 2026, tracks how compound drought and heatwave events, known as CDHWs, have evolved across India from 1951 to 2016. The findings reveal a sharp and accelerating shift in where and how hard these events strike.
What the Study Found
Researchers Debankana Bhattacharjee and Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya from the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi analysed 66 years of daily temperature and rainfall data across India. They used a specialised drought index called SNEPI, which captures how unevenly rainfall falls within a month, a factor that standard tools miss.
As per the study, “the spatial extent of India affected by compound droughts and heatwaves expanded from 10 percent to 35 percent” over the study period. The most alarming finding is the 25-fold increase in extreme category events, while moderate and elevated events expanded three to five times spatially.
Where the Risk Has Shifted
For decades, northwest India and Rajasthan bore the brunt of drought and heatwave stress. That has changed.
As per the study, “hotspots have transitioned from the historically arid northwest to humid eastern and southern regions.” States including Kerala, Assam, West Bengal, and Andhra Pradesh now record joint drought-heatwave occurrences at rates of 20 to 30 percent, figures that were near zero in earlier decades.
Madhya Pradesh, along with Chhattisgarh and parts of the Deccan plateau, also appear on the intensification map, with rising CDHW severity recorded in recent decades. Central India, once a secondary zone, now sits within the expanding ring of compound climate risk.
When Did This Change Begin
The study identifies the 1980s as a turning point. Events increased modestly through the 1970s, dipped briefly in the 1980s, and then rose sharply and persistently from the 1990s onward.
As per the study, heatwave frequency across India increased by approximately 86 percent over the past six decades. Andhra Pradesh shifted from elevated to intense CDHW events after 2000. Assam and the broader northeast moved from severe to intense. Kerala saw escalating severity after 1990.
How It Affects Crops and Communities
The human and agricultural cost is significant. The study examined rice and wheat yields during years of high CDHW intensity.
As per the study, “high-intensity CDHW years reduced national rice yields by 12.1 percent.” Rice, grown during the monsoon season, suffers when rainfall is erratic and heat is simultaneous. Assam recorded an 11.4 percent drop in rice yields and Himachal Pradesh a 13.1 percent fall during such years.
Wheat told a different story. As per the study, wheat yields rose by 13.9 percent during the same high-intensity years, as the crop benefits from the warmer and drier post-monsoon conditions that often follow intense CDHW summers.
The study also found that urban populations exposed to moderate to intense compound events increased four to ten times in states including Kerala, Assam, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal.
Why Wet Spells Are No Longer Enough
One of the study’s most striking conclusions is that even brief wet periods between drought-heatwave events are failing to break the cycle. As per the study, between 10 and 16 percent of CDHW events recurred even after an intervening wet spell, indicating that traditional climate buffers in humid zones are weakening.
Regions like the western coast and the northeast, which historically used frequent rainfall as a natural defence, are now experiencing failed mitigation at growing rates.
The study calls for an urgent reassessment of climate adaptation strategies, particularly for states not previously considered at high risk. With urban populations expanding rapidly in vulnerable zones and rain-fed agriculture dominating large parts of central and eastern India, the convergence of drought and heat is no longer a distant threat, it is an accelerating present reality.
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