The year 2025 is now tied with 2023 as the second-warmest year on record, according to new data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The findings mark another milestone in the planet’s ongoing warming trend, with November temperatures pushing a critical three-year average above a key climate benchmark for the first time.
But this isn’t just about numbers on a chart. The warming has triggered a cascade of extreme events that claimed more than 1,100 lives in a single month.
November Breaks New Ground
November 2025 ranked as the third-warmest November globally, with average surface air temperatures reaching 14.02°C. This figure sits 0.65°C above the 1991-2020 average for the month, based on the ERA5 dataset compiled from billions of measurements taken by satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations worldwide.
The month marked something unprecedented. November temperatures stood 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels, making it only the second month since April to cross the 1.50°C threshold.
“For November, global temperatures were 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels, and the three-year average for 2023–2025 is on track to exceed 1.5°C for the first time,” said Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. “These milestones are not abstract – they reflect the accelerating pace of climate change and the only way to mitigate future rising temperatures is to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
Three-Year Warning
The three-year average crossing the 1.5°C threshold represents the first time this has occurred in the instrumental period, according to the ERA5 dataset. Scientists have long watched this benchmark, knowing it signals intensifying climate impacts.
While 2025 itself may not reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the sustained warming across 2023, 2024 and 2025 demonstrates the persistent upward trend in global temperatures. The pattern reveals something troubling: the planet isn’t just warming, it’s staying warm.
The global temperature anomaly for January through November 2025 stands at 1.48°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial reference period. These figures match exactly the anomalies recorded for the full year of 2023, which currently holds the position of second-warmest year. The warmest year on record remains 2024.
Scientists say 2025 is virtually certain to finish as either the second or third-warmest year on record, possibly tied with 2023.
Arctic Ice Vanishes at Alarming Rate
Northern Canada and the Arctic Ocean experienced notably warmer-than-average temperatures during November. The consequences were visible from space. The Arctic saw sea ice extent drop to 12% below average, ranking as the second-lowest for the month on record.
Sea ice concentrations fell particularly low around Svalbard, Franz Josef Land and the Kara Sea, as well as in the northeastern Canadian sector. These regions coincided with areas experiencing much-above-average surface air temperatures.
In the Antarctic, sea ice extent ranked fourth-lowest for November at 7% below average. Concentrations fell particularly low in the Bellingshausen Sea and the Indian Ocean sector.
Europe Feels the Heat
Europe recorded its fifth-warmest November, with temperatures averaging 5.74°C across the continent, which is 1.38°C above the 1991-2020 reference period. Eastern Europe, Russia, the Balkans and Turkey experienced the most pronounced warming.
The autumn season from September through November ranked as Europe’s fourth-warmest on record, sitting 1.06°C above average. Yet the warming wasn’t uniform. Northern Sweden, Finland and Iceland saw below-average temperatures, while eastern areas, particularly Fennoscandia and Russia, experienced above-average temperatures throughout the season.
Deadly Floods Strike Asia
November brought devastating extreme weather events to multiple regions. More than 1,100 people died across South and Southeast Asia due to extreme rainfall and flooding caused by tropical cyclones and heavy monsoon rains. The storms produced widespread catastrophic flooding across the region.
The death toll underscores what scientists mean when they talk about climate impacts. These aren’t future projections. These are people who died in November 2025.
Europe Splits Between Deluge and Drought
Storm Claudia contributed to wet conditions across western Europe during November. The United Kingdom, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, northwestern Russia and much of the Balkans received above-average rainfall, with Albania and Greece experiencing particularly heavy precipitation.
Yet drought warnings persisted across southeastern Europe, especially in southwestern Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. The Iberian Peninsula remained predominantly dry with persistently low soil moisture throughout the autumn season. The contrast reveals how climate change doesn’t just make things uniformly wetter or drier, it makes weather more extreme in both directions.
Ocean Temperatures Surge
Sea surface temperatures in November averaged 20.42°C between 60°S and 60°N latitude, making it the fourth-highest value recorded for the month. The North Pacific continued to experience much above-average temperatures, with record highs in western areas.
The Norwegian Sea and Coral Sea off Australia’s eastern coast also saw record-breaking temperatures. These warm ocean waters fuel stronger storms and disrupt marine ecosystems that millions depend on for food.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service, implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission, publishes monthly climate bulletins tracking these changes using data from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.
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