Delhi’s air quality worsened on Saturday, moving close to the ‘poor’ category. At 4 pm, the Air Quality Index (AQI) stood at 199, according to the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). The last time the city recorded a ‘poor’ air day was on June 11, when the AQI touched 245 before the arrival of the southwest monsoon.
The Air Quality Early Warning System for Delhi (EWS) under the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences has predicted that the city’s air quality will remain in the ‘poor’ category from Sunday till October 14. Following this decline, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) held a review meeting on Saturday. Officials decided not to impose Stage I of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) since the AQI had not yet crossed into the ‘poor’ range. The commission will reassess conditions on Sunday.
Satellite data from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) showed 64 farm fires across six states on Saturday. Of these, 42 were in Uttar Pradesh, 14 in Punjab, six in Madhya Pradesh, and one each in Haryana and Rajasthan. Despite the start of stubble burning in northern India, its impact on Delhi’s air remained minimal.
The Decision Support System (DSS), which tracks pollution sources, estimated that farm fires contributed just 0.34% to Delhi’s PM2.5 levels on Friday. The main contributor was the transport sector at 19.1%, followed by emissions from Sonipat (10.8%) and residential areas in Jhajjar and Delhi (4.8% each).
Experts said stronger measures are needed to reduce emissions from all sectors. Anumita Roychowdhury from the Centre for Science and Environment said, “We are entering the season of pollution emergency action once again. We need stronger preventive measures and sustained source-wise action.” Dipankar Saha, former head of the CPCB’s air laboratory, noted that after mid-October, meteorological conditions worsen, preventing the dispersion of pollutants and pushing air quality into the ‘poor to very poor’ range across the Indo-Gangetic plains.
Delhi has enjoyed unusually clean air for much of October, mainly due to frequent rains that delayed paddy harvesting in Punjab and Haryana. But forecasts now show that wind speeds, which were around 14–20 kmph on Sunday, will drop to about 10 kmph by Monday evening and fall below 8 kmph by Tuesday night. Lower wind speeds slow the dispersion of pollutants, allowing them to accumulate. The AQI is expected to enter the ‘poor’ category from Wednesday and remain there through the weekend.
The ventilation index, which indicates how well pollutants can disperse, is also expected to drop from 7,700 square meters per second on Sunday to 4,500 by Wednesday. A reading below 6,000 with wind speeds under 10 kmph makes dispersion difficult.
Farm fire data between September 15 and October 11 show 366 incidents across northern states, 163 in Uttar Pradesh, 116 in Punjab, and 11 in Haryana. Punjab’s count remains low due to delayed harvesting after severe floods in September, which left fields waterlogged and crops damp. But officials fear the numbers may rise as farmers rush to prepare for the wheat season.
“Farmers are under financial pressure and have little time,” said a senior Punjab agriculture official. “They often resort to burning because it’s the fastest way to clear fields.” Haryana officials said awareness drives are ongoing but admitted that frustration remains high due to crop losses and delays.
Experts warn that unless emissions from vehicles, construction, and industry are controlled along with stubble burning, Delhi-NCR could face another winter of poor air quality.
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