The much-awaited southwest monsoon is expected to make its arrival over Kerala around May 31, setting the stage for the crucial four-month rainfall season that is vital for India’s farm-based economy, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
In a statement released on Wednesday, the IMD said, “This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days.” The climatological normal date for the monsoon’s onset over the southern state is June 1, with a standard deviation of seven days.
The monsoon’s arrival over Kerala marks the beginning of the four-month-long chief monsoon season across the country. India receives over 70 percent of its annual rainfall during the June-September period, replenishing reservoir stocks, groundwater reserves, and providing crucial support for rain-fed kharif cultivation.
Explaining the significance of the monsoon’s onset over Kerala, the IMD said, “Advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from a hot and dry season to a rainy season. As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the area.”
| YEAR | ACTUAL ONSET DATE | FORECAST ONSET DATE |
| 2005 | 07-June | 10-June |
| 2006 | 26-May | 30-May |
| 2007 | 28-May | 24-May |
| 2008 | 31-May | 29-May |
| 2009 | 23-May | 26-May |
| 2010 | 31-May | 30-May |
| 2011 | 29-May | 31-May |
| 2012 | 05-June | 01-June |
| 2013 | 01-June | 03-June |
| 2014 | 06-June | 05-June |
| 2015 | 05-June | 30-May |
| 2016 | 08-June | 07-June |
| 2017 | 30-May | 30-May |
| 2018 | 29-May | 29-May |
| 2019 | 08-June | 06-June |
| 2020 | 01-June | 05-June |
| 2021 | 03-June | 31-May |
| 2022 | 29-May | 27-May |
| 2023 | 08-Jun | 04-June |
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra clarified that the expected onset date is not early but rather close to the normal date. “This is not early. It’s near the normal date as the normal date for the onset of monsoon over Kerala is June 1,” he said.
Last month, the IMD had forecast above-normal rainfall during the June-September Southwest Monsoon season, raising hopes for a bountiful agricultural output and replenishment of water resources across the country.
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