During a live TV moment, psephologist Pradeep Gupta, Managing Director of Axis My India, was emotional as the 2024 Lok Sabha election results differed from his exit poll predictions. The scene unfolded during an India Today discussion with journalists Rajdeep Sardesai and Rahul Kanwal.
Gupta, whose organization had predicted a big win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with 361 to 401 seats, broke down as the reality sank in. The NDA, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had secured only 295 seats, significantly underperforming the projections.
Pradeep Gupta crying. 🥹🥹 pic.twitter.com/kRRRNv3fsc
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It was a reminder of the challenges of predicting electoral outcomes in a diverse nation like India. Gupta, a Harvard-educated entrepreneur and pioneer in psephology, had built a reputation for accurately forecasting election results, making his emotional response poignant.
Gupta told news agency ANI, “Axis My India has conducted Exit Polls for the past decade, covering 69 elections, including 2 Lok Sabha elections. Our predictions have been accurate 65 times. Notably, in each of these instances, at least one Opposition party, including the Congress, has emerged victorious. Those questioning our credibility should review our extensive track record.”
“As far as credibility is concerned, people who are raising questions should have a look at our track record, they will be satisfied.” he added.
Who is Pradeep Gupta?
Pradeep Gupta is the Chairman and Managing Director of Axis My India, a leading market research and polling firm known for its influential exit poll predictions during Indian elections. Hailing from a humble background in a dusty village in Madhya Pradesh, Gupta’s journey to becoming a psephology pioneer is a remarkable tale of perseverance.
With qualifications in engineering, business administration, and a program at Harvard Business School, Gupta is a respected voice in market research and electoral analysis. His company, Axis My India, predicted the outcomes of 59 out of 63 exit polls since 2013, earning him a reputation for accuracy.
Gupta is a multifaceted entrepreneur with expertise in psephology. He has ventured into printing, advertising, publishing, and on-ground activations. He is credited as the pioneer of Personalized Mass Media in India, turning utility bills and tickets into advertising platforms.
Driven by a zeal for innovation, quality, and commitment, Gupta has authored several acclaimed books, including “Blueprint for an Economic Miracle,” “Modi@20,” “How India Votes and What It Means,” and the upcoming “Who Gets Elected – How and Why.”
Sardesai and Kanwal tried to console Gupta as he covered his face and appeared to sob. They reassured him that exit poll predictions could go awry, but Gupta’s distress underscored the weight of responsibility that pollsters carry in shaping public discourse and expectations.
During the discussion, Gupta analyzed where his predictions went wrong, identifying three key states – Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Maharashtra – where the NDA’s performance fell short of his projections by around 60 seats.
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