The Southwest Monsoon has begun its journey earlier than usual. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the monsoon is likely to start advancing into the South Andaman Sea, parts of the Southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands around May 13. Over the next four to five days, it may spread across more parts of the South Bay of Bengal, the central Bay of Bengal, the entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands, as well as parts of the south Arabian Sea, Maldives, and Comorin region.
Athreya Shetty, an agricultural and crop scientist who shares weather updates on X, said the monsoon began moving on May 11—nearly a week earlier than normal. This is the earliest advance into these regions since 2008. He said the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) now passes through Malé, the southeast Bay of Bengal, Car Nicobar Island, and the central Andaman Sea. He expects the monsoon to move quickly by May 15 or 16, reaching the south Arabian Sea and parts of Sri Lanka and the southern Bay of Bengal.
As mentioned initially in my Monsoon first look at end of March, then in April- #Monsoon2025 has started its journey on 11 May, a week earlier than schedule 🥳
Monsoon has advanced into the #Nicobar islands, south Andaman Sea & parts of SE Bay of Bengal. The NLM passes through… https://t.co/8st0cPHSWT pic.twitter.com/yftBar0Fss
— Athreya Shetty 🇮🇳 (@shetty_athreya) May 11, 2025
The IMD forecasts that the monsoon may reach Kerala by May 27. That would be four days earlier than the usual June 1 onset. Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala on May 31. The department also clarified that an early onset in Kerala doesn’t predict how much rain the rest of the country will get.
In Rajasthan, the IMD expects the monsoon to arrive about four days earlier than normal. It typically enters the state after June 20. Over the last four years, the monsoon entered Rajasthan on June 24 (2020), June 18 (2021), June 30 (2022), and June 25 (2023 and 2024).
Meanwhile, a Western Disturbance is active over the Western Himalayan region. It is expected to cause scattered rain and snowfall in Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand till May 13. Dust storms and light rain are also likely in parts of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.
Heatwave conditions will continue in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra for the next four to five days. Temperatures in these areas may stay 2 to 4°C above normal. Isolated heatwaves may also affect parts of Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and eastern Uttar Pradesh.
In the south, heavy rain is expected in Kerala and Mahe from May 11 to 14. Coastal and south interior Karnataka are likely to get similar showers from May 11 to 13. Thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds are also likely.
Northeastern states including Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura will see moderate rainfall in the next five days. Thunderstorms, lightning, and strong winds are expected.
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