Madhya Pradesh Got 59% More Rain in July, August Likely to be Rainy Too

Madhya Pradesh recorded 59 percent  more rainfall in July than the usual average, with 28 inches of water falling across the state since June 1. Ten districts, including Gwalior, have already met or exceeded their annual monsoon targets.

Rain Intensity Drops After July’s Surge

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this spike was mainly due to two active low-pressure systems and persistent monsoon activity. The surge led to widespread flooding in many areas.

Dr. Divya E. Surendran, senior scientist at IMD Bhopal, said, “In July, two depressions developed. There was also cyclonic circulation and monsoon trough activity. These systems triggered above-normal rainfall, especially in districts like Jabalpur, Sagar, and Gwalior-Chambal.”

The rainfall intensity has now eased. The IMD has forecast light showers for the next four days with no alert for heavy rain.

“Rain fell in several districts on Thursday, but there is no warning of any major system developing in the next four days,” Dr. Surendran said. “We expect the next spell of heavy rain to begin only when a new system becomes active.”

In Datia district, authorities closed all schools and Anganwadi centers on August 1 due to a forecast of heavy rainfall and strong winds. The IMD predicted 64.5 to 115.5 mm of rainfall, with wind speeds between 30 and 50 km/h and possible thunderstorms.

The District Collector issued the closure order under the Disaster Management Act, 2005. Officials said the move was taken to ensure safety.

Heavy July Rains Boost Seasonal Total

So far, Madhya Pradesh has received 28 inches of rain since June 1, surpassing the expected 17.6 inches for this period. The state’s seasonal average is 37 inches, meaning 74 percent of the seasonal quota is already complete.

Districts such as Gwalior, Rajgarh, Shivpuri, Guna, Ashoknagar, Chhatarpur, Tikamgarh, Niwari, Morena, and Sheopur have all reached or exceeded 100 percent of their seasonal rainfall. Many of these saw up to 50 percent  more rain than normal.

In contrast, Indore and Burhanpur recorded the lowest rainfall. Bhopal and Jabalpur received around half of their total seasonal quota.

“Tikamgarh and Niwari received the highest rainfall in July. Indore recorded the least,” Dr. Surendran said.

She said the pattern is likely to continue into August.

“August will likely follow the same pattern as July. The second week may bring heavier rain to parts of Gwalior-Chambal and Rewa divisions,” she added.

Several districts, including Raisen, Shivpuri, Guna, Seoni, Mandla, and Sheopur, experienced flooding last month due to the intense downpours. Rivers and streams overflowed. Dams across the state filled up quickly, prompting authorities to open gates to release water.

More than 10 large dams overflowed, including Bargi, Jauhila, Indira Sagar, and Omkareshwar. Bhopal’s main water body, Bada Talab, is now just 2.5 feet short of full capacity.

“If another strong system brings heavy rains in August, many of the remaining dams could reach capacity,” Dr. Surendran said.

The monsoon has been more active than average this year. Although the total rainfall since June 1 stood at 241.9 mm, below the usual 432.2 mm, heavy rains in July helped close the gap.

Dr. Surendran said that monsoon activity is expected to continue in the first week of August. “Some districts, especially in eastern and western Madhya Pradesh like Guna, Sheopur, and Vidisha, may receive heavy rainfall,” she said.

The July rainfall alone measured 21 inches in Madhya Pradesh. The month’s average is 12.5 inches, meaning the state received 8.5 inches more than usual.

Eastern Madhya Pradesh saw a 62 percent  increase in rainfall compared to the average, while the western side had a 55 percent increase.

Central India Sees Mixed Rainfall Trends

Nationwide, rainfall trends remained mixed in July. IMD data from July 1 to July 29 shows that India received 7 percent  more rain than usual overall. But regional variations were significant.

Rajasthan topped the list with 89 percent  more rainfall than average. Ladakh followed with 161 percent more rainfall than normal.

On the other hand, states like Meghalaya faced a 56 percent rain deficit. Arunachal Pradesh had 44 percent  less rain than usual, and Assam saw a 41percent decline.

Bihar also saw 40 percent  less rainfall, putting it in the deficient category. Sikkim, Delhi, and the Union Territory of Lakshadweep also faced major shortfalls.

In contrast, Jharkhand received 53 percent  more rain than average. Uttar Pradesh recorded an 8 percent  drop but still fell within the normal range. Uttarakhand saw near-perfect rainfall, just 1 mm above average.

Punjab and Haryana saw slight variations but were categorised as normal. Himachal Pradesh had 8 percent  more rain, while Jammu and Kashmir recorded a 10 percent  shortfall.

In central India, Odisha received 13 percent  more rainfall. Gujarat saw a 33 percent  rise. Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu recorded 25 percent  more rain. Chhattisgarh had 14 percent  more rain, and Maharashtra had a 5 percent  increase, both categorized as normal.

In southern India, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands saw 12 percent  more rainfall than usual. Kerala, where the southwest monsoon begins, had 7 percent  less rainfall but still fell under the normal range. Telangana and Andhra Pradesh had slight deficits but remained in the normal category. Karnataka recorded 10 percent  more rainfall.

Dr. Surendran noted, “We are seeing shifts in rainfall patterns across regions. This includes early monsoon onset and uneven distribution due to climate factors.”

The IMD has forecast above-normal rainfall for the full monsoon season. But officials say regional gaps in rainfall may still leave some areas dry.

With August underway, officials and residents in Madhya Pradesh remain alert. If rains continue at the same pace, the state may cross its full seasonal average well before September.

Whether this helps farmers or creates further flood risks will depend on how evenly the rain falls in the coming weeks of August.