The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported that 2023 was the second hottest year in India’s history. Despite this, they predict that most parts of the country will face a very cold winter in January.
The average yearly temperature in India was 0.65 °C higher than the average from 1981 to 2010, which is slightly less than the 0.71 °C increase recorded in 2016.
India faces second hottest year
These measurements align with global indicators like sea surface temperatures, suggesting that 2023 will be one of the hottest years on record, mainly due to the El Niño effect.
El Niño is a regular warming event in the Pacific Ocean that affects weather worldwide, including reducing rainfall after the start of the monsoon in India. The hottest year ever was 2016, which was also an El Niño year.
From January to March 2024, normal rainfall is expected in North India, Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Western Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. The rainfall could be between 86 to 114 percent of the long-term average.
From January to March, it’s expected that the whole country will get more rain than usual, about 112% of the average. Some areas in the far south, far northwest, and northeast of India might get less rain, but most places will likely get more.
In January 2024, North India, including places like Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Western Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, are expected to get more rain than usual, about 122% of the average.
For the whole country, the rainfall in January 2024 is also expected to be more than usual, about 118% of the average. Some parts of northwest and northeast India might get less rain, but most places will likely get more.
Temperature varies, El Nino continues
In January 2024, North India might experience lower than usual minimum temperatures. However, many parts of the country are likely to have higher than usual minimum temperatures. Central India is expected to have fewer cold wave days.
Regarding maximum temperatures, central and north-west India might have lower than usual temperatures in January 2024. However, most parts of the Peninsula and Northeast India are expected to have higher than usual maximum temperatures.
Currently, the Pacific Ocean is experiencing moderate to intense El Nino conditions, with above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in most parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. These conditions are expected to continue in the upcoming season.
The Indian Ocean also affects India’s climate. Right now, there are strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions. However, these are expected to weaken and become neutral early next year.
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