Madhya Pradesh is recording unusually high temperatures in the second week of March, with several districts seeing readings up to 6 degrees above normal. The Gwalior–Chambal region has been the hottest, while Bhopal, Indore and Ujjain are also experiencing warmer conditions than normal for this time of year, according to IMD’s Bhopal centre.
As per data from the Bhopal meteorological department, on March 11, Dhar recorded the highest temperature in the state at 39°C. Sagar reported 38.9°C, Ratlam and Narmadapuram recorded 38.8°C, while Bhairunda in Sehore district touched 38.7°C.
In the major urban centres, Gwalior recorded 37.2°C, Ujjain 37°C, Indore 36.8°C, Jabalpur 36.6°C and Bhopal 36.2°C.
According to the India Meteorological Department, intense summer heat in Madhya Pradesh historically begins after March 15. This year, the rise began nearly a week earlier.
Why the Heat Came Early
Western disturbances normally bring cloud cover, rain and snowfall to northern India in winter, keeping temperatures lower across the plains. V.S. Yadav, meteorologist at IMD’s Bhopal Centre, said their absence is the main reason temperatures have climbed this early.
“Right now there is no active weather system and there is no cloud cover. When clouds and moisture are absent, direct sunlight reaches the surface and temperatures rise quickly,” he told Ground Report.
The wind has also changed direction. Yadav said winds have shifted from north-easterly to westerly and north-westerly. “When winds turn westerly or north-westerly, dry air comes from Rajasthan. That air is warmer and it increases heating across plains like Madhya Pradesh,” he said.
Nishant, an independent weather forecaster who tracks northern and central India, said the heat is not limited to one state. “The temperature rise is not limited to Madhya Pradesh. Northern and central India are seeing similar conditions because of dry air circulation and lack of rainfall activity,” he told Ground Report.
This early March heat has happened before. A peer-reviewed study published in MAUSAM, the journal of the IMD found that March 2022 recorded India’s highest average maximum temperature in 122 years. That month, temperatures in northwest and central India ran 5 to 7 degrees above normal. In west Madhya Pradesh, researchers counted 10 to 15 heatwave days in March 2022, against the usual one to three.
Current readings are not yet at that level. Yadav said the conditions do not meet IMD’s official heatwave threshold, which requires plains temperatures to hit 40 degrees or run 4 to 6 degrees above normal on consecutive days. “A weak western disturbance may reach north-west India around March 14 or 15, which could bring light cloud cover and a slight fall in temperature,” he said.
What it is doing to people
IMD’s Bhopal Centre has issued a public advisory asking people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, drink water through the day, wear light cotton clothing and take extra care of children, older people and those with existing health conditions.
IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said in the department’s seasonal outlook that the months ahead will bring more pressure. “During summer, increased heat could pose risks to public health, water resources and electricity demand,” he said.
Attention has also turned to how the rising heat could affect wheat crops in the state.
What it means for wheat
The heat arrived just as wheat was standing in fields across the state. Dr. Ratan Tiwari, Director of ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research in Karnal, said the timing has limited the damage, but not for everyone.
“Though there is a rise in day temperature, there is no stark rise during the night. There won’t be any impact on early-sown crops from October–November and mid-sown crops between November 15–20. However, in view of the current scenario, we have issued an advisory for farmers who planted late-sown varieties in December,” Tiwari told Ground Report.
Tiwari explained that wheat reaches physiological maturity 10 to 15 days before harvest. After that point, the grain simply dries in the field until moisture levels fall to around 10 to 12 percent, the level needed before cutting can begin. “In Madhya Pradesh the crop is already close to maturity, so the current temperature conditions are generally favourable for drying rather than damaging the crop,” he said.
Yadav said the weather lines up well with this stage. “Right now it is harvest time, so these conditions are ideal for the crop. If rain or strong winds occur, they can affect the harvest. The present weather is suitable for drying of the grain,” he said.
ICAR-IIWBR has advised farmers with late-sown crops to irrigate fields as needed, avoid irrigation during strong winds, and spray a 2 percent potassium nitrate solution (4 kilograms dissolved in 200 litres of water) to reduce heat stress on the crop.
Tiwari said the situation does not warrant panic. Most wheat crops in Madhya Pradesh have already crossed the critical stage and harvesting has begun in several areas.
The western disturbance expected around March 14 may bring brief relief, with light cloud cover and a small dip in temperatures. But IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra has said that temperatures across most of India will remain above normal, nights will stay warmer than usual, and heatwave spells may last longer than in previous years.
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