The sound of rushing water grew louder in the narrow valley of Chashoti in Kishtwar on the afternoon of August 14. Pilgrims on the Machail Yatra were resting in makeshift camps when a sudden cloudburst struck. Within minutes, walls of water, rocks, and mud tore through the settlement. Tents, roadside shops, and shelters were swept away. People ran for higher ground, but the torrent gave little chance to escape its fury. At least 65 were killed, more than 300 people were injured, and over 200 still remain missing.
The destruction shocked residents and officials. Rescue worker Altaf Hussain said, “The water came with such force that camps vanished in seconds. We pulled survivors from debris. Many families are still searching for loved ones.”
Kishtwar has a history of extreme weather events. In July 2021, a cloudburst in Dachhan killed 26 people. The August 2025 flood in Chashoti, however, was among the deadliest in recent memory.
Glacial Lakes Put Kishtwar at Risk
The timing of an official report added urgency to the tragedy. A comprehensive risk assessment plan for Kishtwar district “GLOF Management Plan for Kishtwar 2024–25” identified the district as the most vulnerable in Jammu and Kashmir to glacial lake outburst floods, or GLOFs. Prepared by District Magistrate Rajesh Kumar Shavan, it noted that Kishtwar alone has 197 glacial lakes, the highest in the Union Territory, covering nearly 393 hectares and accounting for 36 percent of the UT’s total glacial lakes.
“The presence of multiple glacial lakes at varying elevations and their proximity to each other heightens the risk of outburst floods, which could be triggered by rapid ice melt, landslides, or seismic activity,” the report stated. “The potential for a GLOF in this region poses a severe threat to downstream communities and infrastructure.”
Two lakes, Mundiksar and Hangu, were classified as “high risk,” while Patla Pani and another unnamed lake were placed in the “moderate risk” category. Scientists noted that many of these lakes are held back by loose moraine dams formed from glacial debris, which are highly unstable. Even a small earthquake could trigger a collapse.
Padder, Machail, Dachhan, Marwah, and Warwan tehsils were singled out as the most at risk. These areas house remote settlements, schools, and health facilities, all of which could be cut off by sudden flooding. Hydroelectric projects under Chenab Valley Power Projects Limited, including Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Dangduru, were also flagged as being in danger from rising water levels or dam breaches.
The District Disaster Management Authority DDMA report further states, “The Kishtwar Himalayas have witnessed significant glacial lake expansion in recent decades, largely driven by global warming. As glaciers retreat, new glacial lakes form and existing ones expand, heightening the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Many of these lakes are held behind unstable moraine dams, which can fail catastrophically under stress from increased water levels, seismic activity, or further glacial retreat. The ongoing expansion of glacial lakes underscores the urgent need for regular monitoring and risk mitigation strategies to protect downstream communities.”
Kishtwar lies in seismic Zone IV, making its fragile topography and melting glaciers a dangerous combination. The report stressed the need for satellite-based monitoring, early warning systems, and community awareness programs.
Cloudbursts Strike Again in Warwan
The Chashoti disaster confirmed the report’s warnings. Officials are still assessing whether the August 14 flood was solely a cloudburst or if a nearby glacial lake contributed. “We are still assessing the exact trigger,” said Pankaj Kumar Sharma, Deputy Commissioner of Kishtwar. “What is clear is that these events are becoming more frequent and more destructive.”
Twelve days later, another calamity struck in the Warwan Valley. A cloudburst hit Margi hamlet, damaging nearly 190 houses and killing 45 cattle. Fortunately, no human lives were lost, but the destruction was severe. Deputy Commissioner Sharma announced a month’s ration supply for affected families and said, “Out of 224 houses, around 50 were fully damaged, and more than 130 were severely damaged. We are working with the SDRF and other teams to clear debris and restore roads and bridges.”
The report highlights that GLOFs could wash away Kishtwar’s key roads, making transportation and evacuation impossible during emergencies. This would isolate remote communities and severely hamper relief operations.
Record Rainfall Fuels Himalayan Cloudbursts
August 2025 was one of the deadliest months in recent memory across Jammu and Kashmir. The Meteorological Department confirmed that the region experienced its sixth wettest August since 1901, with 319.3 millimeters of rainfall recorded, 73 percent above normal.
Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Department, said, “We recorded more than 30 extreme weather events in August alone, including flash floods, cloudbursts, landslides, and thunderstorms. At least 14 of these led to fatalities. This pattern is linked to changing rainfall behavior in the Himalayas.”
Independent forecaster Faizan Arif Keng noted that Doda district received 488.2 millimeters of rainfall in August, almost 290 percent above average. Udhampur, Ramban, and Samba also saw rainfall more than double their usual levels. Even Ladakh recorded surpluses exceeding 900 percent in some areas.
Meteorologists explain that warming air holds more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall events. In the Himalayas, this moisture collides with mountains and rises quickly, creating large clouds. Ruchit Kulkarni, a researcher at the University of Melbourne, said, “The moist airflow from the Arabian Sea is lifted by the Himalayas in a process called orographic lift. The clouds grow rapidly and release intense rainfall in a short time, which we identify as a cloudburst.”
Mohammad Hussain Mir, duty officer at the Meteorological Centre in Srinagar, said, “Such a disaster cannot happen without a cloudburst. However, not much rain was recorded at the nearby observatory in Pahalgam, which is about four kilometres from Chashoti.” He explained, “In plain areas, heavy rains can be recorded simultaneously over a radius of several kilometres. But in the mountains, the situation is different. It is possible for it to rain heavily in one part while nearby areas remain dry.”
Mir added, “In the mountains, a nullah-like structure forms wherever two peaks meet. This structure has a natural gradient. Winds coming from different directions can get trapped in this confluence zone. They extend vertically, sometimes reaching four, five, six, or even eight kilometres.”
Fragile Terrain Heightens Flood Risks
The consequences for fragile mountain communities are devastating. The steep slopes and loose soil of Kishtwar make it highly vulnerable to landslides and floods. Deforestation, unplanned road cutting, and hydropower projects further weaken the terrain. “When the rain comes, there is nothing to hold back the water. It flows directly into villages and valleys,” said environmental activist Mohammad Amin from Kishtwar.
The Chenab River, which flows through the region, is fed by many of these glacial lakes and glaciers. Sudden outbursts or excessive rainfall could alter its course and flood downstream settlements. The Kishtwar High Altitude National Park, known for its biodiversity, is also at risk of habitat loss and ecosystem disruption.
Local authorities are trying to balance immediate relief with long-term planning. The district administration has called for better land-use planning, slope stabilization, and the establishment of early warning systems. Relief camps continue to operate for families displaced by the August events.
Experts stress that while disaster response has improved, prevention remains limited. Institutions like the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology have urged governments to invest in weather radars suitable for mountainous terrain. Current systems often fail to detect cloudbursts in deep valleys until it is too late.
Experts Call for Mapping and Monitoring
Dr. Sunil Dhar, Professor of Environmental Sciences at the Central University of Jammu and a member of the Focused GLOF Monitoring Committee for Jammu and Kashmir, said that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. He stressed the urgent need for micro-zonation of pilgrimage and settlement areas in mountainous regions.
“Detailed scientific mapping can identify which areas are safe and which are at risk for camps, langars, and settlements. Micro-zonation is essential to prevent future tragedies. It helps the administration balance faith with safety,” Dhar added. “This process should include careful mapping of terrain, flood channels, and landslide-prone areas.”
The report states that a comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation plan is critical to safeguard lives, property, and infrastructure in downstream communities of Kishtwar. A multi-layered mitigation strategy is essential to minimize the impacts of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).
It emphasizes that regular monitoring of high-risk glacial lakes and early warning systems are necessary. “Continuous monitoring of high-risk glacial lakes is critical for early detection of any significant changes in water volume or dam stability. The Central Water Commission and other agencies should expand the use of satellite-based remote sensing technologies, such as Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 imagery, and install automated sensors to monitor lake water levels and dam conditions in real time,” the report states.
The report adds that the establishment of Early Warning Systems should include collaboration with the Indian Meteorological Department to predict weather conditions that could trigger GLOFs. These systems will allow authorities to issue timely alerts to vulnerable communities and ensure evacuation measures are in place.
It states that in cases where glacial lakes pose an imminent threat, engineering interventions should be considered. These include controlled drainage of high-risk lakes to reduce pressure on moraine dams and reinforcement of unstable moraine dams using structural materials. Geotechnical studies should be conducted where feasible to determine the most effective methods for dam stabilization.
The report suggests that the DDMA, in collaboration with stakeholders, conducts comprehensive risk mapping to identify areas most vulnerable to GLOF events. “This should include detailed assessments of downstream communities, critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and power plants, and agricultural areas that could be affected by floodwaters. Areas identified as high-risk should be prioritized for disaster preparedness measures, including the creation of buffer zones and evacuation routes,” it adds.
It further states that local communities in Kishtwar must be educated about the risks of GLOFs and trained in emergency response. Regular awareness campaigns should inform residents about warning signs of GLOFs, evacuation procedures, and how to respond during flood events caused by glacial lake outbursts.
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