Snowless winters will lead to extreme heatwaves in coming months

The lack of snow and rain over the western Himalayas, which has persisted from December 2023 into January 2024, could potentially lead to heat waves in March and April, followed by heavy rainfall in the pre-monsoon season over northwest India, according to reports of Down To Earth (DTE).

Northwest India faces severe drought

This climatic shift could exacerbate food insecurity in a region already struggling with the depletion of Rabi crop production in recent years. From January 1 to January 23, six states in northwest India have experienced no rainfall. Two states, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, have received 99 per cent less rain than normal, while the rest have also seen negligible rainfall. Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh have recorded rainfall deficits of 88 per cent and 73 per cent, respectively.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has attributed the extreme lack of precipitation in the Western Himalayan region to a decrease in active western disturbances. These are extra-tropical storms that originate from the Mediterranean region and bring most of the winter snowfall to the high mountains and rainfall to the lower hills and plains of India.

IMD data reveals that India has been impacted by 21 western disturbances between October 1 and January 23. However, only four of these have been active. This has resulted in lower-than-normal post-monsoon rainfall in states such as Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

El Nino causing weather changes in India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the lack of rain and snow over the western Himalayas from December 2023 to January 2024 is due to the El Nino phenomenon. El Nino is a phase where the temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is warmer than usual. This causes changes in weather patterns around the world, including less rainfall and higher temperatures in India.

The World Meteorological Organization announced in July 2023 that El Nino conditions are at peak, correlating with decreased rainfall and snowfall in India, according to Indian climate scientist, Raghu Murtugudde. The cold weather, currently limited to North-West and Northern India, has now reached Mumbai due to the warming of the Arabian Sea.

Currently, Northwest India is experiencing cold days and nights along with dense fog. During ‘cold days’, the daytime temperature is much lower than normal. During a ‘cold wave’, the nighttime temperature drops significantly below normal. This is due to strong winds high up in the atmosphere over North India, known as the jet stream.

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