El Nino Effect: Ministry of Earth Sciences forecasts impact on Indian Monsoon

In response to a question in the Rajya Sabha, the Ministry of Earth Sciences released important details about the El Niño effect during this monsoon season in India, along with various advisories issued by the government to the agricultural sector.

Impact of El Niño on monsoon

El Niño, a weather phenomenon characterized by the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, often affects the Indian summer monsoon. The intensity of the El Niño event plays a crucial role in determining its impact on the monsoon. Historical data from 1951 to 2015 reveal that, of the fifteen years of El Niño, 60% of the years witnessed below-normal or deficient rainfall during the monsoon season. However, in the remaining 40% of years, India experienced normal to excessive rainfall.

It is crucial to recognize that El Niño is only one of several factors that influence the monsoon. Other climatic factors, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Dipole, and Eurasian Land Warming, also contribute to the performance of the southwest monsoon rains.

On June 30, 2023, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its monthly rainfall forecast for July. According to the forecast, monthly precipitation across the country during July 2023 is most likely to be normal (94 to 106% of Long Period Average – LPA).

As of July 11, precipitation is 26% above the normal level for July. The spatial distribution indicates normal to above-normal rainfall in most areas of Central India, Peninsular South and Eastern India, while below-normal rainfall is expected in several regions of North-West, North-East and South-East Peninsular India.

Govt advice to Agricultural sector

The government has implemented an Agrometeorological Advisory Services (AAS) scheme, known as Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS), to support the farming community. Under this scheme, medium-term weather forecasts are generated for the next five days at the district and block level.

Based on these forecasts, 130 Agromet Field Units (AMFU) prepare Agromet Notices for their respective districts and communicate them to farmers to help them in their daily farming operations. IMD’s AAS aims to improve crop production, food security and reduce crop damage caused by unusual weather conditions.

Based on the updated Long-Range Forecast (LRF) issued by IMD on May 26, 2023, the seasonal southwest monsoon precipitation across the country is most likely normal (96-104% LPA). However, below-normal rainfall is expected in the region in North-West India, while other regions (Central India, North-East India and South Indian Peninsula) will receive normal rainfall.

To facilitate the dissemination of weather advisories, IMD employs multiple channels such as print and electronic media, Door Darshan, radio, Internet and SMS through Kisan Portal. Farmers can access weather information specific to their districts through mobile apps such as ‘Meghdoot’ launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences and ‘KisanSuvidha’ app launched by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare.

IMD actively organizes Farmer Awareness Programs (FAP) through AMFU and DAMU throughout the country. During 2022-23, 1,296 FAPs were held, attended by 59,324 farmers. This year, through April 2023, 112 FAPs have been carried out, with 4,567 farmers attending the program. Efforts are underway to popularize these services through KisanMelas, Farmer’s Day events, and collaborations with state governments.

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