India holds the world’s third-largest Muslim population. In 2025, the community confirms its profound shift toward demographic stability. This analysis uses the official 2011 Census data and the newest figures from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) to clearly show current trends.
Official Baseline and Current Projections
The 2011 Census counted the Muslim population at 172.2 million, making up 14.2% of India’s total population.
Experts project the Muslim population in India to reach between 205 million and 230 million (20.5 to 23 crore) by 2025. The community retains its status as the world’s largest Muslim minority population.
| Metric | 2011 Census (Official) | 2025 Projection (Estimate) |
| Absolute Population (Millions) | 172.2 | 205 – 230 |
| Percentage of Total Population | 14.2% | 14.6% – 15.0% |
B. India’s Global Standing
India continues to host the largest Muslim-minority population globally. It is surpassed in absolute numbers only by Indonesia and is roughly comparable in size to Pakistan’s entire Muslim population. This scale underscores the community’s immense national and global significance.
The biggest change in India’s religious demographics is the drop in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR)—the average number of children a woman gives birth to in her lifetime.
A. Fastest Growth Myth vs. Reality
People often cite the Muslim community’s historically higher growth rate (24.6% in 2001-2011). However, new data shows growth has slowed dramatically.
B. TFR Gap Closes: Official NFHS-5 Data
Official data from the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5, 2019-21) provides the clear evidence:
- The Muslim TFR fell to 2.36 in 2019-21.
- The Hindu TFR fell to 1.94 in 2019-21.
This sharp decline means the TFR gap between the two groups now stands at only 0.42 children. The Muslim TFR is quickly approaching the replacement level of 2.1 (the rate needed for population stability), proving that education and income, not religion, control fertility rates.
Even though birth rates dropped, the Muslim population will continue to grow slightly for some time. This happens because the community has a large number of young people entering their reproductive years, a phenomenon called population momentum. This lag does not reflect current birth rates, which are stabilizing.
| Religious Group | TFR (NFHS-1, 1992-93) | TFR (NFHS-5, 2019-21) | Total Decline |
| Muslims | 4.41 | 2.36 | -46.5% |
| Hindus | 3.3 | 1.94 | -41.2% |
| TFR Gap (Muslims minus Hindus) | 1.11 children | 0.42 children | Shrinking |
The official NFHS-5 (2019–21) data shows the Muslim TFR of 2.36 is rapidly approaching the national replacement level of 2.1 (which the Hindu TFR of 1.94 has already surpassed). This convergence confirms that socio-economic factors (literacy, income, urbanisation), not religious identity, are the dominant drivers of fertility decline across all communities.
EAC-PM Findings: The Historical Increase
The EAC-PM paper studied the 65 years from 1950 to 2015. It concluded:
- The share of the majority Hindu population decreased by 7.82%.
- The share of the Muslim population increased by 43.15%.
B. Balancing History with Current Data
The report accurately describes historical change. However, focusing only on the 1950 baseline (right after Partition) risks overlooking the present situation. Policy discussions must balance the historical growth data with the modern NFHS-5 data, which shows stabilisation. This context confirms that India successfully protects diversity, unlike many neighboring countries.
Geographic Distribution: State-wise Concentration in 2025
| State / UT | Share of Muslims in state population (approx) | Notes / 2025 context* |
|---|---|---|
| Lakshadweep | ~ 96.6 % | Only region with very high majority. |
| Jammu and Kashmir (pre-bifurcation) | ~ 68.3 % | Still among highest; major Muslim-majority region. |
| Assam | ~ 34.2 % (2011) | Some 2025 estimates suggest rise, around 40% in recent years. |
| West Bengal | ~ 27.0 % | Population base large, many Muslims in absolute terms. |
| Kerala | ~ 26.6 % | Stable share among southern states. |
| Uttar Pradesh | ~ 19.3 % | Largest absolute Muslim population among Indian states. |
| Bihar | ~ 16.9 % | Significant minority population. |
| Maharashtra | ~ 11.5 % | Muslim population concentrated in urban areas. |
B. Balancing History with Current Data
Focusing exclusively on the 1950–2015 period, which includes the decades of highest growth, risks obscuring the contemporary trend. For policy and accurate public discourse, it is essential that the historical analysis be balanced with the current data from NFHS-5, which confirms the widespread and ongoing TFR stabilisation that began post-2000.
Geographic Distribution: State-wise
| Rank | State / Union Territory | Muslim Population Share (%) | Significance |
| 1 | Lakshadweep (UT) | 96.58% | Highest percentage concentration / Majority |
| 2 | Jammu and Kashmir (UT) | 68.31% | Majority Union Territory |
| 3 | Assam | 34.22% | Significant concentration in North-East |
| 4 | West Bengal | 27.01% | Major eastern state |
| 5 | Kerala | 26.56% | Southern state |
| 6 | Uttar Pradesh | 19.26% | Highest absolute number nationally |
| 7 | Bihar | 16.87% | Major eastern state |
| 8 | Jharkhand | 14.53% | |
| 9 | Uttarakhand | 13.95% | |
| 10 | Karnataka | 12.92% | |
| 11 | Delhi (NCT) | 12.86% | National Capital Territory |
| 12 | Maharashtra | 11.54% | |
| 13 | Andhra Pradesh* | 9.56% | Includes Telangana’s 2011 data |
| 14 | Gujarat | 9.67% | |
| 15 | Rajasthan | 9.07% | |
| 16 | Goa | 8.33% | |
| 17 | Tripura | 8.12% | |
| 18 | Telangana (Split in 2014) | 12.68% | Post-split data, derived from Andhra Pradesh 2011 figures |
| 19 | Madhya Pradesh | 6.57% | |
| 20 | Andaman and Nicobar Islands (UT) | 8.42% | |
| 21 | Manipur | 8.40% | |
| 22 | Himachal Pradesh | 2.16% | |
| 23 | Chhattisgarh | 2.02% | |
| 24 | Arunachal Pradesh | 1.95% | |
| 25 | Punjab | 1.93% | Sikh majority state |
| 26 | Sikkim | 1.62% | |
| 27 | Mizoram | 1.35% | Christian majority state |
| 28 | Odisha | 2.17% | |
| 29 | Haryana | 7.03% | |
| 30 | Meghalaya | 4.40% | Christian majority state |
| 31 | Nagaland | 2.04% | Christian majority state |
Analysis for 2025 strongly shows the Muslim population is entering a period of demographic stabilization, driven by national progress in education and development.
Government and policy efforts must now focus on two clear goals:
Close the Data Gap: Successfully holding the new national census (expected around 2025) will officially confirm the TFR convergence and socio-economic gains.
Ensure Equity: Policymakers must move beyond general welfare programs and implement targeted support for the marginalised Pasmanda groups. This action will guarantee inclusive development and ensure the entire community benefits fully from India’s growth.
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