Every Indian household knows the sting. Walk into any market from Mumbai to Manipur, and the prices glaring back from vegetable stalls tell the same story – tomatoes, onions, and potatoes have become luxuries ordinary families can barely afford.
Behind this kitchen crisis lies a harsh climate reality. Extreme weather is systematically destroying the crops that feed 1.4 billion Indians, turning everyday vegetables into budget-busters that force families to change what they eat.
New research reveals the devastating link between India’s changing weather patterns and soaring food prices. Heatwaves scorch tomato fields. Unseasonal rains drown onion crops. Hailstorms shred potato harvests. Each climate shock ripples through the supply chain, landing as a punch to household budgets across the country.
The numbers are stark. A comprehensive study by Climate Trends shows how five years of erratic weather have systematically disrupted India’s vegetable production, creating a food inflation crisis that hits the poor hardest. Using data from the Reserve Bank of India and findings by climate scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the research maps a direct path from extreme weather events to empty kitchen shelves.It shows how heatwaves, unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms have disrupted supply chains over the past five years.
“The connection between climate change and food inflation is no longer indirect. Weather shocks are causing repeated disruptions in vegetable production,” said Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends.
Climate Change Drives Food Prices
Food inflation in India had eased after 2014 due to better supply management. That stability broke in 2019–20 when unseasonal rainfall damaged onion crops in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, along with potato harvests in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
The RBI has found that rainfall changes raise vegetable inflation by 1.24 percentage points, while temperature changes add 1.30 points. Because these vegetables are perishable and grown in concentrated regions, even minor weather disruptions cause sharp spikes.
In 2019, heavy rain during the kharif season destroyed onion crops across large parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. That year, vegetable inflation reached 35.9 percent. The cycle of weather shocks and rising prices has continued since.
Inflation fell briefly in 2021–22 but surged again in 2022 due to post-pandemic demand and the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2023 and 2024, erratic weather delivered new blows. Consumer food price inflation peaked at 11.5 percent in July 2023 and stood at 10.87 percent in October 2024. Vegetable inflation rose even higher, hitting 37 percent in July 2023 and 42 percent in October 2024.
Tomatoes were the first crop to suffer in 2023. Heavy rains in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka reduced production by 10.9 and 12.9 percent. Wholesale prices at Delhi’s Azadpur Mandi rose from ₹18 a kilo in June to ₹67 in July.
Onion supplies collapsed next. Unseasonal rain and hailstorms cut Maharashtra’s production by 28.5 percent. Prices climbed to ₹39 a kilo in November 2023.
Potato harvests also fell. In 2023–24, frost in Uttar Pradesh and unseasonal rain in West Bengal reduced production by 7 percent. Prices averaged ₹21.6 a kilo in August 2024, compared with the ₹10–14 range seen between 2021 and 2023.
Heat, Rain Slash Farm Output
The year 2024 was the hottest ever recorded in India. Heatwaves scorched large areas while erratic rainfall destroyed crops. Tomatoes averaged ₹40 a kilo in Delhi’s wholesale markets in July. Onions peaked at ₹37 a kilo in September.
A vegetable grower, Kailash Pawar (44) from Bhutai village in Mohkhed block, District Chhindwara, cultivates vegetables on nearly 40 acres. He primarily grows tomatoes and has been farming for the last 12 years. He said, “It’s raining at random times and the heat is increasing. This has led to increased attacks on vegetable crops by caterpillars during the rainy season and insects during the summer.”
He further added, “Tomato flowers that bloom before August fall off, and sometimes they don’t even bloom. I don’t know the reason. Excessive rainfall also poses a risk of root rot. This will reduce my production from 1000 carats (25,000 kg) per acre to 200 carats (5,000 kg).” that it doesn’t even cover the wages paid to laborers for picking tomatoes.”
Farmers and traders reported heavy losses due to rotting during transport. “When it rains, moisture gets trapped in the crates. Vegetables rot during transportation before they reach the mandi,” said Anil Mehta, a wholesaler at Azadpur.
Small farmers were the hardest hit. Most do not have access to cold storage, refrigerated trucks or crop insurance. Their produce often spoiled before reaching markets.
The scale of the losses was clear in production data. Himachal Pradesh’s tomato output fell from 532,340 tonnes in 2022 to 474,340 tonnes in 2023. Karnataka’s production dropped from 2.3 million tonnes to 2 million tonnes in the same period.
Recalling his losses, he said, “In April 2022, a sudden hailstorm completely destroyed my 30-acre crop. I had high hopes for my crop that year. I even hired a consultant for proper nutrition and production and paid him 50,000 rupees. The total cost came to 1.25 crore rupees.”
Maharashtra’s onion harvest fell from 12 million tonnes in 2022 to 8.6 million tonnes in 2023. Potato production in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal declined from 34.6 million tonnes in 2022 to 32.1 million tonnes in 2023.
These drops in output coincided with sharp price increases that lasted for months until new harvests reached markets.
On market rates, he said, “Even after the losses, the market price for tomatoes is 300 to 400 rupees per carat, which is very low. Sometimes, this price is so low
The pain has been particularly strong in Madhya Pradesh, which is a key onion producer. In 2019, floods damaged large parts of the kharif onion crop in districts like Indore and Khandwa. Traders there say farmers are still struggling with unpredictable rainfall. “Every year we fear either too much rain or too little. Both destroy onions,” said Rajendra Patel, a farmer from Dewas district.
Hailstorms Devastate Madhya Pradesh Farms
In May this year, farmers in several districts of Madhya Pradesh suffered major losses when hailstorms lashed the region, damaging horticulture crops.
Experts and cultivators said the hail shattered stems, bruised fruits, shredded leaves and caused discoloration, making the produce less marketable. The damage was particularly severe for mangoes, lemons and oranges.
Another farmer, Harimohan Sharma (41) from Bilanda village in Chaurai block, cultivates capsicum, tomatoes, cabbage, and coriander on 15 acres.
He said, “In 2022, I was cultivating tomatoes on 4 acres and capsicum on 5 acres. But a hailstorm in May destroyed my entire crop.”
He further explained, “Cultivating capsicum on one acre costs up to 3 lakh rupees. It yields a maximum of 40 tons. But last year, I only produced 20 tons. This happened because of irregular rainfall.”
Damaged plants diverted their energy to healing instead of growth, which reduced yields. The physical wounds also made crops more vulnerable to fungal, bacterial and insect attacks. Farmers reported accelerated ripening, early spoilage and shorter shelf life.
Other cultivators pointed out a policy gap. While compensation exists for kharif and rabi crops under insurance schemes and the Revenue Book Circular (RBC) 6(4), horticulture farmers receive no such support.
“This is the third time this season that rain has damaged our onion crops,” said farmer leader Bablu Jadhav. “Many farmers cannot recover even their input costs.” Leaders including Shailendra Patel and Chandan Singh Barwaya warned of deepening financial distress if the government fails to act.
On changing weather patterns, he said, “Last year, there was rain during both winter and summer, which led to an attack of Fusarium wilt on my crops. Excessive rainfall also caused waterlogging in the fields, leading to the risk of rotting of cabbage and tomatoes.”
Former agriculture director GS Kaushal echoed these concerns, noting that every year hailstorms destroy horticulture crops, yet there is no dedicated compensation policy. Farmers have appealed for immediate intervention, demanding relief, better price support and effective crop insurance. “We are not seeking charity but justice,” said Patel. “We need timely relief or many of us will be forced out of farming.”
Extreme Weather Threatens India’s Agriculture
Scientists say extreme weather is becoming more frequent due to climate change. “Spells of heatwaves are longer and more intense. Rainfall comes in shorter, heavier bursts, causing floods, while dry spells also last longer. Agriculture is the primary victim,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather.
Speaking about the impact of heat, he said, “Tomatoes can withstand temperatures of 35 to 36 degrees Celsius, but if temperatures exceed that, they begin to deteriorate. Higher temperatures increase the cost of pesticides and other pest control measures, and more water is used to maintain soil moisture.”
Data from the India Meteorological Department show extreme weather occurred on 93 percent of days in the first nine months of 2024. Studies cited by the IPCC warn that 15 to 40 percent of land now used for rainfed rice could become unsuitable by 2050. Pests and diseases are also expected to spread to new areas.
Experts say immediate steps are needed to reduce losses. Protected cultivation methods, such as greenhouses, can shield perishable crops like tomatoes from heavy rain and heat. Cold storage, refrigerated transport and warehouses could prevent spoilage.
“Big farmers can survive weather shocks, but small farmers cannot. Cluster farming can help. If farmers pool their produce and transport it together in refrigerated vans, they can reduce heat-related losses,” said Dr Ashutosh Singh, Professor at the College of Agribusiness Management, GB Pant University of Agriculture and Technology.
Social safety nets are also seen as vital. Stronger crop insurance, weather advisories, and nutrition programs could protect both farmers and consumers from sudden shocks.
Climate Shocks Fuel Food Inflation
The repeated price spikes in 2019, 2023 and 2024 suggest climate shocks are no longer rare. They are shaping the prices of everyday vegetables. Because food accounts for nearly half of the Consumer Price Index, even small disruptions have a large impact on overall inflation.
“The connection between climate and the kitchen is now brutally clear. A hotter atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to cloudbursts. Longer dry spells dry out the soil. Every swing shows up not just in the farmer’s field but in the consumer’s pocket,” said Raja Bhaiya, convener of Vidya Dham Samiti, an NGO based in Banda, Uttar Pradesh.
India’s reliance on the southwest monsoon, combined with the high perishability of crops like tomatoes, onions and potatoes, makes its food supply especially fragile. Without major investments in climate-resilient farming and better storage systems, experts warn that volatility will continue.
“Inflation linked to food has always been politically sensitive. Onion prices have influenced elections in the past. The new wave of climate-driven inflation is harder to predict and harder to control,” said Shachindra Sharma, an environment activist based in Lucknow.
For millions of households, the impact is felt not in charts or data but in the cost of daily meals. With vegetables rotting in fields, trucks and mandis, the rising price of staples like tomatoes, onions and potatoes has become a direct reminder of how climate change is reshaping life in Indian kitchens.
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